Market Overview

The US economy is still expected to post a slower growth rate in the upcoming fourth-quarter GDP report. But in a sign of confidence that a respectable expansion persists, the projected rate of...

We saw rates increasing yesterday, with the 10-year rate rising 2.5 basis points to 4.79% and the 30-year rate increasing two basis points to 4.97%. The 30-year minus 3-month spread has increased by...

The US economy added more jobs than expected in December, providing a fresh dose of optimism that the labor market will remain strong for the near term. There’s lots of uncertainty ahead as Trump 2.0...

“Speculation has run amok on Nasdaq,” writes Helene Meisler. “And it’s not as though the speculation stops at the stocks themselves. It veers right into options land as well.” Of course, options...

This week, the PPI, CPI, and Retail Sales data will be significant. This follows a strong December job report. The household survey was also robust, showing that nearly 478,000 people found jobs...

Inflation is relatively low compared with the post-pandemic surge, when the year-over-year change for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) peaked at 9.0% in June 2022. The current 2.7% pace through this...

A deep look at tariffs and the most attractive macro asset classes to kickstart 2025. What if tariffs end up being non-inflationary and negative for growth? And what if Trump focuses on short-term...

“Curb Your Enthusiasm,” which ran its series finale last year, starred Larry David as an over-the-top version of himself in a comedy series that showed how seemingly trivial details of day-to-day...

The bull/bear ratios have dropped sharply over the past couple of weeks (chart). From a contrarian perspective that's a bullish development for the US stock market. The US bond yield has been...

There is so much to talk about, since it has been such a long time since I posted, that it is a little hard to know where to begin. So let’s begin 2025 with a few quick notes about inflation markets...

Timing the market might seem like a mystery, but with the right tools and a little practice, it’s all about recognizing patterns and acting decisively. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or just...

United States Recent business surveys suggest that the clean election outcome has led companies that delayed investment and hiring due to election/regulatory uncertainty to start putting money to...

The S&P 500 finished the day essentially flat, up 16 basis points—little changed overall. The key focus remains at the 5870 level, which was tested again yesterday. We’ve discussed this level...

There are a lot of moving parts across the global economy. From commodity prices to employment data to bond yields, investors pay attention. Today we look at government bond yields (i.e. interest...