Market Overview

The recessionistas are now forced to look to the third quarter as the earliest start date for an economic downturn in the US. The odds have been low recently that Q2 would mark the beginning of an...

Yesterday was a rough day for risk assets all around. We are currently witnessing the unwinding of the global carry trade in the Japanese yen. This development has significantly impacted volatility...

The US dollar continued to weaken against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc this morning, but it has gained against other major currencies. The euro, in particular the EUR/JPY pair, has been hit hard...

It’s a human shortcoming to favor simple explanations for the business cycle. The notion that reliability and timeliness can be forged in one indicator endures, but recent history has hammered this...

As we shared in a recent Daily Commentary about interest rates: The current unemployment rate is 4%, and the core PCE inflation rate is 2.6%. In December 2019, the unemployment rate was 3.6%, and...

Stocks finished the day lower, but the FX market had a lot more action, especially in the Japanese yen, which moved sharply against the Australian dollar, the US dollar, the euro, the Canadian...

A seismic shift is taking place in corporate America as even more companies announce plans to relocate from blue states to more business-friendly jurisdictions like Texas. Last week, Elon Musk...

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The Federal Reserve is widely expected to start cutting interest rates at the Sep. 18 FOMC meeting, but the debate is turning to how far the central bank will trim its policy rate once the easing...

US economic activity is on track to remain slow in this month’s second-quarter GDP report. The expansion is expected to continue via the government’s data, but today’s revised nowcast for Q2 suggests...

With both economic and inflation data continuing to weaken, expectations of Fed rate cuts are rising. Notably, following the latest consumer price index (CPI) report, which was weaker than expected,...

As many of you are no doubt aware by now, France’s left-wing New Popular Front alliance thwarted Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party in a stunning upset, leaving the country without a clear majority...

We’ve been here before. Markets price in high odds that the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates only to learn otherwise. Is this time different? That’s the bet again. To be sure,...

This week won’t contain all of the economic data we have seen the past couple of weeks, but there will be a Q&A session between Jay Powell and David Rubenstein on Monday, July 15, at 12:30 PM ET....