Market Overview

Markets, as we all know, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy. While the Trump administration’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada have been...

The major stock market indexes are still up since Election Day despite recent turbulence caused by DeepSeek and Trump Tariffs 2.0 (chart). The former is weighing on the shares of AI companies....

Geopolitics I: What Trump Wants from Canada & Mexico. It’s become abundantly clear to us what President Donald Trump wants from Mexico. To Trump, Mexico is a looming security threat. In his view,...

QUOTE “Investing is not about buying good things, but about buying things well – and if you don’t understand the difference, you shouldn’t be an investor.” –Howard Marks Clearly, many operating in...

This will be a hectic week. Earnings season is winding down, of course, but we have lots of economic data, starting on Wednesday with the core CPI, which is expected to rise by 0.3% m/m from 0.2%....

All money is lent into existence. The Federal Reserve or the government does not print money. Those two facts are vital to understanding our lead question: where does money come from? Furthermore,...

The NY Fed has recently published a study on bank failures in the U.S., examining the reasons why banks fail. For this study, the regulator constructed a large database with balance sheet information...

Yesterday’s market was a bit volatile, though not surprising. We mainly saw sideways trading for most of the day until about 2 PM, when we experienced a significant downdraft. However, that was...

Rates fell sharply yesterday following a weaker-than-expected ISM services report. The quarterly refunding announcement showed no significant shifts in how the Treasury plans to issue debt. With...

I am continually fascinated by how many second-order ‘understandings’ are missed, even by those people who have a really good first-order understanding of finance. For example, every financial...

Overall, the macro & liquidity conditions are still positive for risk assets. While equity market valuations are rich, especially in the US, earnings growth momentum is accelerating, and market...

Over the weekend, President Trump announced tariffs of 25% on both Canada and Mexico, as well as a 10% tariff on China. Such was not unexpected, as contained in the Trump tariff Executive Order....

Since many of you were not trading through the wild Trump 2.0 years, I felt that it was important to share my tips on how to navigate the market volatility. Don't miss this 2025 Day Trader Survival...

Q4 S&P 500® EPS growth expected to come in at 13.2%, the highest growth rate in three years. Large-cap outlier earnings dates this week include: AMD, JNPR, HON, ALGN. Peak season begins...