Market Overview

Last week, we covered recession odds based on Trump admin policies, tariff focus, and DOGE revelations. Since then, Polymarket odds for the US recession moved slightly up, from 39 to 40% for...

The U.S. has poured more than $120 billion into Ukraine since its war with Russia began three years ago, but with a new administration in Washington, that support is grinding to a halt. The White...

The closely watched U.S. February CPI report comes out today. Headline annual inflation is seen rising by 2.9% and core CPI is forecast to increase by 3.2%. Investors should brace for volatility...

Investors are on edge ahead of February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report today, which economists expect to show a slight cooling in inflation. Forecasts point to a 3.2% year-over-year increase,...

As new presidential terms go, this one’s off to a rocky start for the economic outlook, thanks largely to disruptive tariff plans that risk triggering a global trade war. Perhaps most surprising is...

The US, Japan, and parts of Europe had a rough week, while China, Germany, France, and the Euro Stoxx 50 stayed steady. Tariffs, central banks, and the war in Ukraine keep markets uncertain,...

I’m sure this week will be interesting, given the CPI and PPI reports. I’m sure the administration will have plenty of on-again and off-again policy statements about something. The one thing that...

DOGE is unlikely to cause a US recession, but its "move fast and break things" approach raises the risks. Narratives about the U.S. economic outlook have darkened in the past month as concerns about...

The risk of a recession in the U.S. is not zero. This is particularly true as the current Administration tackles Government bloat and implements tariffs. However, before we discuss why the risk of a...

Stocks finished the day sharply lower, just one day ahead of the most important jobs report ever. Yes, that’s right—the VIX 1-day rose and closed at 31.2 yesterday. The market seems to think today’s...

Lately, volatility has been off the charts. We’re seeing triple-digit swings in stocks, and the market is getting a real taste of the wild ride that comes with a president who makes game-changing...

1. S&P 500 Likely to Hold at 200-Day MA (1) Will S&P 500 indexes find support at their 200-day moving averages? We think so. Sentiment is quite bearish and the next batch of economic...

Stocks finished the day higher, rising about 1.1%. It didn’t take much—just word that President Trump would delay auto tariffs by a month. But in a negative gamma environment, momentum can build...

According to the most recent Polymarket odds, 39% of betters believe recession is on the table during 2025, which is an uptick of 18% over the last week. However, many hold the view that the economy...