Market Overview

The next round of central bank decisions could rank among the most challenging in recent history, perhaps in decades. Policy hawks and doves can cite a fair amount of evidence for supporting their...

Mark Cuban Says Trump’s Tariff Proposals Will Ramp Up Prices- Business Insider Fed’s Kashkari Says Trump Tariffs Could Reheat Inflation If They Provoke Global Trade War- CNBC Blanket Tariffs Would...

Rates dipped slightly yesterday, with the 10-year Treasury falling by about two basis points and the dollar index declining by 40 basis points, providing some relief to risk assets. Given the...

Fourth-quarter economic output for the US looks set for another downshift, based on CapitalSpectator.com’s initial GDP nowcast. The estimate reflects the median for a set of nowcasts published by...

A Pause That Refreshes? Last week, we discussed that with the election over and the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, many market headwinds were put behind us. To wit; “As a result, the market...

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is an accomplished danseur. His pirouette's are masterful. He did another such pivot on Friday in prepared remarks for a speech [starts at 19:00] to business leaders in...

As President-elect Donald Trump announced his nominees for the top positions on his national security and foreign policy teams, one theme stood out: A confrontational approach in relations with Iran...

As the market has now struck the upper end of my long-term target set many years ago, it seems many have embraced this bull market, to the extent that they see no reason for it to end. However, that...

2% CPI is a headline you won't find in today's Wall Street Journal. The reason is that official inflation gauges, such as CPI, are in the mid to upper 2% range. Last Wednesday, for instance, the...

Stocks finished the day lower, following hotter-than-expected PPI data and some commentary from Jay Powell that caused traders to pare back bets on December and January rate cuts. The market now sees...

On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for October. Following the trend of the last three months, the inflation rate increased 0.2% on a...

CPI came in as expected yesterday, but that didn’t stop long-end rates from rising, with the 30-year up six bps and the 10-year up two bps. The dollar index also continued to melt up after the data,...

I said two months ago that I didn’t think the Fed should ease, but they would anyway. And they did, by cutting overnight rates 50bps. Then last month I said: “Getting rates back to neutral, around...

Fed funds futures are still leaning into expectations that the Federal Reserve will reduce its target rate next by a quarter point, but the related confidence of the forecast is slipping. The current...