Currency Forecast

The narrative surrounding the “dollar’s death” as the world’s reserve currency has been on the rise recently. However, this happens whenever the US dollar declines relative to other currencies. We...

The US dollar has lost some momentum as oil prices corrected slightly lower, and markets still struggle to gauge the probability of the US joining the Middle East conflict. EUR/USD may stabilise now...

We expect a 25bp cut in Switzerland, and holds in the UK, Norway and Turkey. But the main driver for FX remains the Middle East situation and implications for oil prices. The US dollar is likely to...

GBP/USD at the mercy of Fed, BoE, and Israel-Iran headlines Oil’s surge revives dollar’s safe-haven credentials UK inflation cools, but is it enough to pressure for a dovish BoE tilt? Looking for...

Markets are now speculating on a US military intervention in Iran, and oil prices are jumping again. This has triggered a renewed safe-haven appeal for the US dollar, although this appears dependent...

GBP/USD has surged on better-than-expected UK data, but as those surprises become the new baseline and momentum begins to fade, the pair is now exposed to a volatile macro mix. UK inflation and BoE...

The main story in FX remains the rapidly evolving Middle East conflict. If oil prices correct further due to perceived limited supply risk, the US dollar can follow suit and move lower. However, some...

Deflation, a surging franc, and limited meeting windows all point to the SNB potentially doing more than markets expect this week—could a return to negative rates be the shock that jolts USD/CHF from...

Geopolitical risks failed to update over the weekend and will remain central in FX price action. The US dollar's rebound has been lacklustre, and while some support is warranted by the current market...

In a week where the New Zealand economy is tipped to have grown solidly in the first three months of the year, more timely information suggests activity in Q2 is already falling off a cliff, raising...

The Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities has sent oil prices spiking and has offered the oversold and undervalued US dollar a catalyst for a rebound. The energy price shock is generally...

Soaring geopolitical tensions and a rapid narrowing in U.S.-Japan yield spreads have combined to send USD/JPY sharply lower in Asia, breaking trend support and triggering fresh bearish signals. With...

While we’re not expecting the US dollar to collapse, we do think there are enough negative factors out there to keep it under pressure for the rest of the year Divestment Alert There has been a lot...

Yesterday's softer US May CPI data led to the usual pattern of stronger Treasuries and a weaker US dollar. However, this might be short-lived, given the numerous risk events over the next month....