Currency Forecast

The currency market has followed the stabilization in tech stock sentiment, and today’s focus will shift to central bank meetings. We don’t think the Fed's conditions for a dovish tilt have been met,...

Central bank moves this week will impact EUR/USD, with the ECB likely cutting rates and the Fed holding steady. Traders await ECB and Fed actions, with inflation trends and political factors...

Equity market futures are tentatively testing stability this morning, but DeepSeek’s knock-on effect on US tech valuations may be longer-lasting. The US dollar proved inefficient as a haven in the...

The US dollar's fate hinges on key central bank decisions and Trump’s trade rhetoric this week. Fed and ECB moves, combined with trade tensions, will likely determine the dollar's next...

The US dollar has so far retraced about a quarter of its 10% run-up from late September. That has largely been a function of investors reducing the tariff risk premium embedded into the currencies of...

Our recent article, Why Are Bond Yields Rising, explains that the recent 1% increase in yields, as shown below, is almost entirely due to negative sentiment. As we wrote, the bond market calls...

Markets have continued to unwind US Dollar longs as US Treasuries had another strong session, and a delay in tariff announcements is fuelling some tentative optimism. That said, we could start to see...

The narrowing interest rate differentials between Japan and the rest of the world have been a key theme in the improving Japanese yen forecast in the last couple of weeks. The main USD/JPY pair...

The US dollar suffered a positioning squeeze yesterday as Trump fell short of announcing universal tariffs on day one. However, USD/CAD and USD/MXN are facing more downside risks as the new president...

The fact that trade policy did not feature prominently in President Donald Trump’s inauguration speech has triggered a decent correction lower in the US dollar. We cannot rule out a near-term...

Today, all eyes are on Donald Trump's inauguration as the 47th President of the United States. Financial markets are bracing for a flurry of executive orders ranging from immigration to energy and...

Markets may tread carefully today ahead of Monday’s inauguration of President Trump. There are lingering concerns about the “day one” measures, some of which are priced in, which could generate some...

Besides expecting another round of positive US activity data, today’s FX focus will be on the Senate confirmation hearing of Scott Bessent, Trump’s nominee for US Treasury Secretary. He will be...

The US PPI surprised on the soft side, but that does not mean today’s CPI will send similar upbeat signals. We expect a 0.3% MoM core print, which can offer a new round of support to the dollar. In...