Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Is this the calm before the storm? Or has the danger passed? The bond market is focused on news and data in the days and weeks ahead that will provide context for answering these key questions....

The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield eased in December after rising for two straight months. The analysis uses a “fair value” estimate. Despite the downshift, the market continues to...

Interest rates continue to dominate our recent research. And rightfully so. Big swings in interest rates have ramifications for the domestic and global economy. Whether it is falling bond...

In just 4 years, the trend (and investment theme) of low interest rates has been turned on its head. During this time, home and auto loan rates have gone from consumer-friendly to unfriendly. Quite...

Inflation risk is topical again, as I’ve been discussing this week. As a result, the bond market is demanding a higher yield premium to compensate for the possibility that inflation will be higher...

The backup in bond yields since mid-September did not surprise us. But it has surprised lots of other financial pundits, who are warning that this could be bad news for stocks. It could be,...

The question asked of us most often recently: “Why are bond yields rising?” After verbally answering it plenty of times, it’s time to put our answer in writing for everyone to see. The answer will...

The US economy continues to roar. December's ISM purchasing managers survey showed that services activity remains strong. The JOLTS data, albeit a bit stale from November, showed job openings jumped....

There’s little about recent history that reflects stability, with at least one exception: the average trailing payout rate on a globally diversified portfolio. There’s been a lot of churning in...

The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield rose in October relative to a “fair value” estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com. The increase marks the first time since April that the...

The Bond Market is saying “This Time is Different”. The Term Premium is on the rise, and it now sits close to the highest level for the last 10 years. But What is Term Premium? An investor looking...

The job report on Friday delivered a big downside surprise with just 12k jobs created in October. Certainly nowhere near my model’s estimates, but then again, given the size of revisions over the...

Will the summer rally in bonds survive the autumn? Fresh doubts are bubbling as the market reconsiders a range of risk factors, including renewed skepticism about the Federal Reserve’s commitment to...

Stocks were modestly lower, but there was a clear risk-off tone throughout the day as rates rose sharply, along with the dollar. The CDX high-yield credit spread index also moved higher. Despite the...