Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The market premium for the US Treasury yield remained mostly unchanged in May vs. a “fair value” estimate. As the 10-year yield continued to trade in a tight range last month, combined with virtually...

Numerous bond narratives are driving long-term bond yields higher. “Crippling deficits” and a tariff-induced inflation sit at the top the list. We have repeatedly poked holes in these narratives....

On January 8, 2025, we answered many of your questions with an article entitled Why Are Bond Yields Rising? Since then, bond yields initially fell but have recently risen back to early January...

When building a strong and diversified portfolio, most investors focus heavily on stocks. But bonds play an equally important role—especially when it comes to managing risk and providing consistent...

The short answer is that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is letting the market set yields. For years, the BoJ has run an extremely loose monetary policy, including capping yields at extremely low levels and...

US 30-year yields are flirting with the 5.10% area. Even in Japan, 30-year yields have surpassed the 3% level.Bond markets are on fire again all around the world.Let’s make things clear: this is not...

Global diversification for bonds has been a tough sell in recent years, but 2025 is another story. Year to date, fixed-income securities ex-US are outperforming the investment-grade US benchmark for...

The real story ahead of the PPI and Retail Sales reports is Treasury rates, which continue to rise despite Tuesday's soft CPI report. Today, we’ll also hear from Powell as part of the Fed’s framework...

Bond Market investors are bumping up the odds of a US recession.Everyone can see the bond market is throwing a tantrum: front-end yields have rapidly declined signaling nervousness about the state of...

Our recent article, Swaps and Basis Trades Warn Of Mounting Liquidity Problems, touched on negative interest rate swap spreads as an omen of potential liquidity problems. To stay on the topic of...

If long-end bond yields spiral out of control, the Fed could start injecting liquidity again: a step-by-step guide of how it works. When a few weeks ago 30-year bond yields briefly flirted with the...

Bonds I: Kerfuffle. Bloomberg reported that JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon said on the company’s Friday earnings call: “There will be a kerfuffle in the Treasury markets because of all the...

Rising US bond prices have offset the slide in US equities so far this year, but the outlook for fixed income may be more precarious than the current rear-window perspective suggests. President...

It's time to talk about Bond Vigilantes. How Does a Proper Bond Vigilantes Trade Work? Contrary to popular belief, a true bond vigilantes trade doesn't only require bond yields to go up. Bond yields...