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In April last year I took a look at the market potential for a downturn that ultimately, never materialized. That scenario was negated by the break of the March high during the summer, followed by a...
It’s a big week for US economic data, which could push long-term rates towards 5%, especially if the data comes in stronger than expected. On Tuesday at 10:00 AM, we’ll get the JOLTS report and ISM...
2025 begins with our plans well in motion for a stock market top and important changes to the macro This article attempts to put clearer words and images to the many words I expended in my interview...
We will start the new year with initial jobless claims, an important data point, today and the ISM manufacturing data, which is particularly significant, on Friday. The ISM manufacturing index is...
On December 18th, the Fed officials voted to reduce the fund’s rate by 25 basis points, tightened their forward guidance on future cuts, and issued a new Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) with...
Analysis of the current movements of commodities futures, along with cryptocurrency prices indicate that the markets look ready to repeat the moves, seen during the last tenure of US President Donald...
This week is expected to be relatively quiet. The most notable data release will be the ISM Manufacturing Report on Friday, January 3. Early in the week, we’ll get some housing data, while continuing...
When the Obama Administration first suggested the Affordable Care Act following the Financial Crisis, we argued that the outcome would be substantially higher, not lower, healthcare costs. It is...
Wall Street analysts and market strategists are carefully evaluating the potential impact of Donald Trump’s presidential victory on financial markets in 2025, with early indicators showing both...
The 2024 season is coming to an end. What an eventful year it has been: the Magnificent 7 rally, the Bitcoin halving, Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) Cybercab reveal, geopolitical tensions and the US election....
The S&P 500 rallied by about 75 basis points yesterday, but it remains a market with weak breadth. Breadth was notably weak in the morning, though it improved slightly as the day progressed....
If you happen to be a Bitcoin skeptic, you’re not alone. A recent Pew Research survey found that 63% of Americans are not confident in the reliability or safety of cryptocurrencies in general. But...
It’s that time of year when Wall Street polishes up its crystal balls and predicts next year’s market returns. Since Wall Street never predicts a down year, these forecasts are often wrong and...
According to Bank of America, institutional fund managers are sitting on record low cash allocations as they increase their equity holdings. Bank of America believes this is a contrarian indicator...
Inflation I, the Good: In our Roaring 2020s scenario, a productivity growth boom boosts real GDP growth, keeps a lid on inflation, drives up real labor compensation, and widens profit margins. Last...