Market Overview

An analysis of Presidential Candidate Trump’s policy proposals recently suggests that tax cuts will increase the deficit. While the raw analysis is correct, as it subtracts the potential for reduced...

With the US presidential elections just a few weeks away, we take a look at the economic and social program of the Democratic candidate for the White House. Following the interest rate cut announced...

Markets are highly confident that the Federal Reserve will announce another cut in interest rates at the next policy meeting on Nov. 7, two days after the election. The uncertainty is whether the cut...

Consumer confidence has been relatively depressed for the past couple of years according to the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), which are based on surveys...

The odds continue to look favorable that the US will dodge an NBER-defined recession through the end of the third quarter. Q4 still looks more challenging, but that’s guesswork at this point. By...

In our recent two-part series on the yield curve (Part One  Part Two) we discussed the four predominant yield curve shifts and what they imply about economic activity and monetary...

Last week, the Federal Reserve made a significant move by cutting its overnight lending rate by 50 basis points. This marks the first rate cut since 2020, signaling the Fed is aggressively supporting...

As the Fed pivot starts with a 50-basis-point slash, the bond market expects more to come, and gold should benefit. Meanwhile, the risk of a second inflationary wave isn’t dismissed, and the Nasdaq...

From time to time, I like to point out errors that we make because we think in nominal space, or because we had 25 years of inflation being so low that we didn’t have to think about it very much. I...

The financial media appear to once again be leading the public astray about the Yield Curve situation. The media pounded and pounded the yield curve’s inversion as a signal about an imminent economic...

As I have noted here for the past few months, the narrative surrounding generative AI has shifted dramatically. This is starting to lead to a shift in estimates of the major players’ potential...

This week will be relatively quiet in terms of economic data. The main events are Treasury auctions for 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year notes, scheduled around 1 PM Tuesday, Wednesday, and...

We've focused on three scenarios since the start of the decade: a 1920s-style Roaring 2020s, a reprise of the 1990s stock market meltup, and a rerun of That '70s Show with geopolitical shocks causing...

The news of the week is NOT the Fed cutting 50 bps - yes sure, that’s important but there is something much more relevant going on. The Chinese economy keeps imploding from within. And we should pay...