Market Overview

Last week's decline hints at a growing unease among market participants. With the labor market softening further, is the Fed too late on rate cuts? The S&P 500’s recent struggles signal cautious...

The macro evidence suggests we are at a major turning point. It’s the sort of thing that could precipitate a reversal in the relative performance of commodities versus stocks. On its own, the stock...

Recessions don’t happen very often, and they don’t last very long. Most of the nine recessions since 1960 were caused by the tightening of monetary policy, which triggered a financial crisis and a...

This week all eyes will turn to prices, with the CPI report on Wednesday, the PPI report on Thursday, and import/export prices on Friday. Analysts expect the CPI report to show a 0.2%...

This past week, I heard an interview with President Trump, during which he postulated that “this country will go into a depression if she wins the presidency.”  Now, believe me, I am no fan of...

It certainly seems that technological advances make our lives better. Instead of writing a letter, stamping it, and mailing it (which was vastly more personal), we now send emails. Rather than...

The current lineup of US GDP nowcasts for the third quarter continue to indicate a softer but still solid growth rate. Wall Street is wondering if the upcoming payrolls report for August will change...

Stocks ended the day mostly flat, resembling a pause. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the market trade lower today, ahead of the payroll report, which is due tomorrow. Implied volatility will likely...

We expect the Fed rate cut cycle to start soon and proceed gradually. Barring a financial crisis or a sharp and unexpected change in the path of inflation or unemployment, the upcoming rate-cutting...

September has just started and is already living up to its reputation of being the toughest month of the year for stocks. The stock market sold off after the open and August's weak M-PMI report was...

Stocks fell sharply yesterday, with the S&P 500 down more than 2% and the Nasdaq 100 dropping 3.15%. These declines aren’t entirely unexpected, and some of the drop is due to the end-of-day surge...

Stocks rallied to close out the last week of August. The $6.5 billion buy imbalance, which overwhelmed the market in an illiquid trading session ahead of the three-day weekend, could have had...

Unnoticed by the vast majority of investors, a major macro regime change is underway. This could prove to be a catalyst for a major regime change in financial markets in coming years. Already it...

In a recent discussion with Adam Taggart via Thoughtful Money, we quickly touched on the similarities between the U.S. and Japanese monetary policies. However, that discussion warrants a deeper dive....