Market Overview

Economic data activity will pick up again this week, culminating in the PCE report on Friday. Additionally, NVIDIA's (NASDAQ:NVDA) midweek earnings, which have become a significant market-moving...

“The Gunfight at Dodge City” is a 1959 Western film. After his brother the sheriff is murdered, Bat Masterson is elected to the job of sheriff and is determined to find the killer and make Dodge City...

Last week, we discussed the surge in retail exuberance in the market following the election of President Trump. “The market defies more negative news because retail investors continue to step in and...

I am constantly amazed at certain articles of faith among the economics community. In my line of expertise, one of the most amazing to me is the absolute conviction with which the economics community...

For Part 1 on “Tariff Risk” read: Tariff Impact Not As Bearish As Predicted. In “Trumpflation” we discussed why the tariff risk was not inflation. To wit: “Today, globalization and technology give...

Success in trading isn’t about guessing market direction—it’s about executing a well-defined framework with discipline and precision. This framework provides a structured approach to identifying...

US economic activity is on track to maintain a moderate growth rate in 2025’s first quarter, according to the median for several nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. Today’s initial Q1 estimate...

Market Shakes Off Inflation Data I am back from traveling, and we have a good bit to catch up on since our last report. If you missed it, I provided an update on Tuesday, updating all the weekly...

US Economy I: On the Road Again. Taylor Swift’s “The Eras Tour” was her sixth tour. It started on March 17, 2023, in Glendale, Arizona and concluded on December 8, 202,4 in Vancouver, British...

It will be a slow start to the week, with the markets closed on Monday for Presidents’ Day. Things should pick up for the market by Wednesday. Of course, we’ll have the Fed minutes, and then on...

There are many media-driven narratives about the impact of tariffs on the economy and the markets. Most of them are incredibly bearish, predicting the absolute worst possible outcomes. For fun, I...

Stocks finished the day higher as bond yields fell following the PPI report. The key data points in the data suggested that core PCE will likely not come in as hot as the core CPI report left...

Yesterday's CPI came in much hotter than expected, and the impacts were felt throughout the bond market and the US dollar complex. Core CPI came in at 0.4% - hotter than the 0.3% m/m estimates....

US inflation came in well ahead of expectations, prompting the market to dramatically reprice the prospect of rate cuts. Potential tariffs add upside risk to inflation in coming quarters, but there...