Market Overview

Well, it looks like the day before yesterday’s implied volatility ramp higher came back to bite the market yesterday. The early IV crush in the VIX 1D went from 21 to 11, sending the S&P 500...

The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve is poised to un-invert under disinflationary, possibly coming deflationary pressure We know the story. A disgusting virus spread across the world, terrorizing society into...

If a recession in the US has started or is imminent, the threat has yet to show up in the latest run of nowcasts for third-quarter GDP. That’s no guarantee that the economy will continue expanding,...

There’s a lot of controversy over AI. The passion of those for and against its propagation is almost religious in nature, with zealots and heretics. The zealots believe that AI is a revolutionary...

Last week, before she accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination for president, Vice President Kamala Harris threw her support behind President Joe Biden’s tax proposals for 2025, which include a...

There is a very interesting case to be made for investing in the “old economy” today. Sentiment toward commodities and their producers has fallen to a degree of extreme bearishness you would expect...

The economy isn’t always decisive in US presidential elections, except when it is. Think Herbert Hoover in 1932 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. Each lost the presidency to a challenger primarily...

The S&P 500 ended the day up about 40 basis points yesterday, showing little reaction to the rising VIX, increased 1-month implied correlation indexes, a steeper yield curve, and a weakening US...

Profitable bond trading opportunities arise when your expectations about Fed policy differ from those of the market. Therefore, with the Fed seemingly embarking on a series of interest rate cuts, it...

The 10-year rate ended the day in a particularly interesting position, given its significance in the broader financial landscape. It closed at 3.81%, just above the August 5 close of 3.79%. The 3.8%...

Credit spreads remained steady yesterday, but there were notable movements elsewhere. The one-month implied correlation index, which gauges how stocks might move together, increased. At the same...

Social media has become the place where many of us spend our time, share our lives and, increasingly, get our news. An estimated 12 billion combined hours are spent every day on these platforms,...

US recession risk appeared to ease in the wake of last week’s encouraging updates for retail sales and jobless claims. Will the better-than-expected numbers delay the widely expected rate cut that...

I expect volatility to increase this week, particularly with VIX options expiring on Wednesday. The current VIX option positions suggest that the VIX may remain around the 15 level, which means the...