Market Overview

The financial media appear to once again be leading the public astray about the Yield Curve situation. The media pounded and pounded the yield curve’s inversion as a signal about an imminent economic...

As I have noted here for the past few months, the narrative surrounding generative AI has shifted dramatically. This is starting to lead to a shift in estimates of the major players’ potential...

This week will be relatively quiet in terms of economic data. The main events are Treasury auctions for 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year notes, scheduled around 1 PM Tuesday, Wednesday, and...

We've focused on three scenarios since the start of the decade: a 1920s-style Roaring 2020s, a reprise of the 1990s stock market meltup, and a rerun of That '70s Show with geopolitical shocks causing...

The news of the week is NOT the Fed cutting 50 bps - yes sure, that’s important but there is something much more relevant going on. The Chinese economy keeps imploding from within. And we should pay...

Last week, the Fed vice chair for supervision, Michael Barr, announced that the regulator had cut a proposed increase to capital requirements for the largest US banks by more than half. According to...

We've focused on three scenarios since the start of the decade: a 1920s-style Roaring 2020s, a reprise of the 1990s stock market melt-up, and a rerun of That '70s Show with geopolitical shocks...

Wow, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps yesterday and the economy is already responding. Jobless claims fell and two regional business surveys strengthened in September, while the...

After over two years of Fed pauses, pivots, and uncertainty, the Fed has finally kicked off a new cycle by cutting its overnight rate by 50 bps and delivering an even more dovish dot plot than...

The recent run of forecasts from some corners that a US recession is imminent, or possibly already underway, continues to look premature. Although it’s short-sighted to dismiss various risks that are...

With investors eager for a rate cut, I believe the Federal Reserve will proceed with caution, opting for a 25bps reduction rather than a more aggressive 50bps cut. Cutting too much, too fast would...

Today’s retail sales report could be critical, especially if it comes in weak, as the market is currently uncertain about the number of rate cuts expected tomorrow. Currently, Fed Fund Futures show...

Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to cut rates for the second time this year, following its initial cut in June. The Deposit Facility Rate, which determines the interest banks earn...

This week will feature critical central bank meetings, with the Fed on Wednesday, the Bank of England on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan on Friday. While the Fed will capture most of the focus in the...