Market Overview

I publish an updated version of my New Year “investor” resolutions yearly. The purpose of the process is to take an annual inventory of what I did and did not do over the last year to improve my...

A deep look at tariffs and the most attractive macro asset classes to kickstart 2025. What if tariffs end up being non-inflationary and negative for growth? And what if Trump focuses on short-term...

“Curb Your Enthusiasm,” which ran its series finale last year, starred Larry David as an over-the-top version of himself in a comedy series that showed how seemingly trivial details of day-to-day...

The market’s performance over the past month reflects a mixed picture of resilience and weakness. While the S&P 500 remains in a bullish structure and has held above key support levels, a closer...

The bull/bear ratios have dropped sharply over the past couple of weeks (chart). From a contrarian perspective that's a bullish development for the US stock market. The US bond yield has been...

There is so much to talk about, since it has been such a long time since I posted, that it is a little hard to know where to begin. So let’s begin 2025 with a few quick notes about inflation markets...

United States Recent business surveys suggest that the clean election outcome has led companies that delayed investment and hiring due to election/regulatory uncertainty to start putting money to...

The S&P 500 finished the day essentially flat, up 16 basis points—little changed overall. The key focus remains at the 5870 level, which was tested again yesterday. We’ve discussed this level...

Incoming US President Donald Trump has pledged tariffs of as much as 10% on global imports and 60% on Chinese goods, plus a 25% import surge on Canadian and Mexican Products would upend trade flows,...

There’s a lot to discuss, with markets moving quite violently in all directions—it’s hard to know where to begin—the economic data triggered much of yesterday’s movement. The JOLTS report came in...

Markets have been re-pricing the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year in the wake of more hawkish Fed commentary. Today's data suggests that the economy is maintaining its strong momentum...

US economic activity looks set to post softer growth in the government’s upcoming fourth-quarter GDP report. Based on the median nowcast from several sources, output appears set to downshift to the...

Shares of NVIDIA soared 171% in 2024, but quieted in the back half of the year The company will present at two of the biggest conferences of the year this week and next With its Q4 earnings...

In April last year I took a look at the market potential for a downturn that ultimately, never materialized. That scenario was negated by the break of the March high during the summer, followed by a...