Market Overview

Wow, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps yesterday and the economy is already responding. Jobless claims fell and two regional business surveys strengthened in September, while the...

Recent market volatility has raised questions about the staying power of the rally for global assets that began in late-2023. A clear warning sign has yet to emerge, based on a set of ETF pairs that...

After over two years of Fed pauses, pivots, and uncertainty, the Fed has finally kicked off a new cycle by cutting its overnight rate by 50 bps and delivering an even more dovish dot plot than...

The recent run of forecasts from some corners that a US recession is imminent, or possibly already underway, continues to look premature. Although it’s short-sighted to dismiss various risks that are...

With investors eager for a rate cut, I believe the Federal Reserve will proceed with caution, opting for a 25bps reduction rather than a more aggressive 50bps cut. Cutting too much, too fast would...

Today’s retail sales report could be critical, especially if it comes in weak, as the market is currently uncertain about the number of rate cuts expected tomorrow. Currently, Fed Fund Futures show...

This week will feature critical central bank meetings, with the Fed on Wednesday, the Bank of England on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan on Friday. While the Fed will capture most of the focus in the...

Be prepared for this week's Federal Reserve meeting. Here are 4 ways to trade the upcoming interest rate cut 

The financial markets have been expecting more cuts in the federal funds rate (FFR) than Eric and I have all year so far. At the start of this year, the markets anticipated six to seven rate cuts in...

Today’s revised estimate of US economic activity for the upcoming third-quarter GDP report continues to point to a slower-but-still-solid growth rate, based on the median nowcast for several...

Over the past few decades, the global landscape of technological research has undergone an unprecedented transformation. While the United States once dominated this strategic field, China has...

Let me start with the punch line, which I think will not be a very common take: this report does not stop the Fed from easing 50bps next week, and honestly doesn’t really even hurt the chances very...

Forget about a recession in the US. Currently, it is China's recession/depression that is weighing on oil prices, global bond yields, and the dollar. Weak Chinese demand for oil caused OPEC today to...

We have written many articles and commentaries forecasting interest rates. The analysis has used prior and current inflation and economic activity. Additionally, we have looked at market data on...