Market Overview

The US economy added more jobs than expected in December, providing a fresh dose of optimism that the labor market will remain strong for the near term. There’s lots of uncertainty ahead as Trump 2.0...

“Speculation has run amok on Nasdaq,” writes Helene Meisler. “And it’s not as though the speculation stops at the stocks themselves. It veers right into options land as well.” Of course, options...

This week, the PPI, CPI, and Retail Sales data will be significant. This follows a strong December job report. The household survey was also robust, showing that nearly 478,000 people found jobs...

Inflation is relatively low compared with the post-pandemic surge, when the year-over-year change for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) peaked at 9.0% in June 2022. The current 2.7% pace through this...

I publish an updated version of my New Year “investor” resolutions yearly. The purpose of the process is to take an annual inventory of what I did and did not do over the last year to improve my...

A deep look at tariffs and the most attractive macro asset classes to kickstart 2025. What if tariffs end up being non-inflationary and negative for growth? And what if Trump focuses on short-term...

The market’s performance over the past month reflects a mixed picture of resilience and weakness. While the S&P 500 remains in a bullish structure and has held above key support levels, a closer...

The bull/bear ratios have dropped sharply over the past couple of weeks (chart). From a contrarian perspective that's a bullish development for the US stock market. The US bond yield has been...

Timing the market might seem like a mystery, but with the right tools and a little practice, it’s all about recognizing patterns and acting decisively. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or just...

United States Recent business surveys suggest that the clean election outcome has led companies that delayed investment and hiring due to election/regulatory uncertainty to start putting money to...

The S&P 500 finished the day essentially flat, up 16 basis points—little changed overall. The key focus remains at the 5870 level, which was tested again yesterday. We’ve discussed this level...

There are a lot of moving parts across the global economy. From commodity prices to employment data to bond yields, investors pay attention. Today we look at government bond yields (i.e. interest...

Incoming US President Donald Trump has pledged tariffs of as much as 10% on global imports and 60% on Chinese goods, plus a 25% import surge on Canadian and Mexican Products would upend trade flows,...

There’s a lot to discuss, with markets moving quite violently in all directions—it’s hard to know where to begin—the economic data triggered much of yesterday’s movement. The JOLTS report came in...