January Sales and Trends In Focus: Eyeing 3 US Interim Reports

• Ford F, Costco COST, and Charles Schwab SCHW will issue monthly updates in the sessions ahead, offering clues on the state of the US economy.

• Q4 earnings reports are coming in fast, but additional color may be gleaned from January corporate updates.

• After an impressive year of stock market gains and a bullish, though shaky, start to 2025, expectations may be high for US large-caps.

2025 began with volatility, but the weekend release of DeepSeek’s AI model upended the tech sector on Monday. Still, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow 30 are all up so far this year; even small caps and the broad international equity market are positive as we get ready to flip the calendar to February. For a status check, fourth-quarter corporate earnings reports have come in solid as we hit the heart of the season, inflation updates during the middle of the month were generally sanguine, and some jitters around tariffs have eased.

As Q4 reports continue rolling in, investors may wish to heed monthly interim updates from some of the world’s most important companies. Periodic sales figures, operational results, and production tallies can offer clues on how firms are performing between quarterly earnings filings. At Wall Street Horizon, we have tracked interim data for five years; our clients can parse historical data to identify trends to seek more effectively manage risk.

Today, let’s cast the spotlight on three US bellwethers: Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F), Costco Wholesale Corp (NASDAQ:COST), and Charles Schwab Corp (NYSE:SCHW)(SCHW). Between now and Valentine’s Day, each company will post interim results. The three large caps also have unique stories over the past 12 months; shares of Ford are down since late January of 2024 while Costco has soared almost 40%. In the middle is Schwab, up better than 25% in the past 52 weeks.

Monday, February 3: Ford January Sales

Ford shares have been in reverse gear since last summer. The domestic automaker fell by nearly 18% following a weak Q2 report last July. Despite beating on the top line, the company recorded significant warranty costs in what has become a trend. With a broader industry pickup in vehicle sales over the first half of 2024, there were hopes that Ford’s management team would have raised its full-year earnings guidance, but that didn’t happen.

Then, in October, F dropped another 8% on the heels of a weak profit forecast compared to what it had previously issued to the street. The stock held its early-August lows through December and so far in 2025. Recent volatility has come about possibly thanks to tariff talk, however. With President Trump vowing to tariff goods imported from Mexico and Canada, Ford may be in the crosshairs of a potential trade battle. CEO Jim Farley said earlier this month that “a lot of our supply chain depends on countries from around the world, and so tariffs are really challenging for any company.” Higher import duties would likely have material impacts on US automakers. Lastly, Barclays downgraded the stock to Equal Weight last week on inventory concerns and risks that FY 2025 earnings targets won’t be hit.

We’ll know more about Ford’s near-term future in early February when it reports January sales numbers as well as its Q4 earnings on Wednesday, February 5 AMC. After a pair of weak reactions to quarterly updates, the options market prices are in a 6.5% earnings-related stock price swing. So, next week could be a busy one for the $40 billion Consumer Discretionary stock that also carries a high 7.7% dividend yield.

Wednesday, February 5: Costco January Sales

Shifting gears, the Consumer Staples sector was the lone S&P 500 group in negative territory year-to-date through last Friday. COST, however, bucked that bearish trend with a 3% total return through the year’s first three-plus weeks. It appears that consumers remain value-conscious and the holiday shopping season was strong, which could benefit Costco.

Shares rose modestly in the after-hours on January 8 when the Washington-based wholesale club reported a 9.9% year-on-year jump in December net sales. Backing out the later-than-usual Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday period, its E-commerce sales still soared 20.7% over the year’s final five weeks. Will the momentum continue? Find out Wednesday, February 5 right after the bell when it issues January comp-store sales. Costco’s fiscal Q2 report isn’t due out until March 6

The bar might be high since COST has outpaced the S&P 500 since last January, considering the stock’s forward operating P/E ratio being above 50.

Friday, February 14: Schwab January Interim Statement

On Tuesday last week, SCHW reported revenue of $5.3 billion for the three months ending in December and $1.01 of non-GAAP EPS. Its management team noted a $115 billion increase in core net new assets, bringing its full-year total to $367 billion, a 4.3% annual rise. Core net new assets were $114.8 billion, making the full-year amount $366.9 billion, up 20% from 2023.

The stock rallied 5.9% in the session that followed, nearly touching its highest mark in two years. Recall that in Q1 of 2023, SCHW was caught up in the regional banking crisis, so it has been a comeback in the last 22 months. The broker has also come under fire for its cash sweep account practices. Thus, while the stock has performed well lately, there are some lingering negative headlines. An important metric to watch this year is Schwab’s Net Interest Margin (NIM) - its management said it expects NIM to expand to 280 basis points by Q4 2025, but that was a cut from its previous outlook, according to BofA.

We’ll get a read on how the year began with its January Monthly Activity Report to be released in mid-February.

The Bottom Line

With big-name Q4 reports hitting left and right, investors may want to keep an eye on the very latest data via January interim reports that will cross the wires throughout the first half of next month. There are many macro concerns today even after a generally strong finish to 2024. Policy uncertainty is high, interest rate concerns persist, and expectations may be lofty after 2024.