Global Markets Split as China Weakens Ahead of Key Policy Signals

Global equity markets opened the week without a unified direction as Asia sold off while Europe and U.S. futures attempted to stabilize, revealing how sensitive risk appetite has become to China’s slowdown and shifting expectations around global interest rates.

Asian markets absorbed the brunt of the pressure after China reported weak November activity across consumption, industrial output, and investment, reinforcing concern that domestic demand remains fragile and that policy support is still insufficient to restore momentum.

Japan’s Nikkei closed 1.3 percent lower as selling accelerated in large tech holdings, while Softbank fell nearly 6 percent as investors reassessed valuations tied to the artificial intelligence cycle. South Korea’s Kospi retreated 1.8 percent as chip and auto stocks led declines, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.3 percent with the tech-heavy ChiNext sliding 1.8 percent. The Shanghai Composite slipped 0.55 percent and Shenzhen fell 0.8 percent, highlighting persistent skepticism toward China’s ability to generate a durable recovery.

The tone in Europe diverged as early gains in financials and miners helped offset the negative lead from Asia. Spain’s IBEX 35 rose 0.9 percent, driven by strength in Santander and BBVA as investors positioned for a more supportive rate backdrop ahead of this week’s decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.4 percent, though a sharp 5.1 percent drop in Sanofi underscored that company-specific disappointments can still cut through broader market optimism. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 gained 0.5 percent as miners benefited from firmer gold, silver, and copper prices supported by a softer dollar. These moves reflected a market recalibrating around the idea that Europe may be near the end of its easing cycle while still confronting sluggish growth.

U.S. equity futures pointed modestly higher with Nasdaq and S&P 500 contracts up 0.2 percent and Dow futures up 0.3 percent, a tentative rebound after Friday’s declines in large technology names including Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO). The recovery in futures suggested investors were willing to re-engage selectively ahead of critical data rather than retreat from risk entirely. That caution is likely to persist until the November jobs report on Tuesday and CPI data on Thursday clarify whether the Federal Reserve’s path next year aligns with the current assumption of gradual easing. The upcoming earnings release from Micron will also serve as a key barometer of demand for memory and AI-related semiconductors at a moment when valuations across the broader tech complex are being questioned.

This split between Asian weakness and European resilience captures a market grappling with uneven global growth and approaching a dense sequence of rate decisions. Japan is widely expected to raise rates toward 0.75 percent, the U.K. is positioned for a cut, and the ECB may signal that further easing is unlikely. Each of these outcomes would adjust regional risk premiums and shape flows across equities, currencies, and commodities. The base case is that policymakers deliver incremental changes without disrupting financial conditions, allowing markets to stabilize once the week’s data and decisions remove uncertainty. The risk scenario is that China’s slowdown deepens while central banks deliver guidance that challenges current rate assumptions, which could pressure tech valuations further and amplify volatility.

For investors, the takeaway is straightforward. This week’s macro events will set the tone for cross-asset positioning into year-end, and the divergence now appearing across regions is likely to widen if policy paths do not align with market expectations. The next few sessions will determine whether the early signs of risk aversion remain isolated to Asia or spill more broadly into global equities.