Market Overview

US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the big number to watch this week. Here's an important trading tip on US Dollar & US Inflation Relationship

Keynes once said that markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.I love this quote because it speaks about the power of narratives, and my humble adaption of that would...

The bubble in ‘no holds barred’ monetary policy (birthed under Alan Greenspan) and the bullish markets it benefits are in their third decadeGold, meanwhile, will not be ready until the...

The cost of housing remains a hot-button topic with both Millennials and Gen-Z. Plenty of articles and commentaries address the concern of supply and affordability, with the younger generations...

So, it was another rather boring day, with the S&P 500 finishing flat, rates up, the dollar up, and implied volatility somewhat higher. This has been a very odd earnings season.Last night, I noted...

It’s hardly the first time that the sharp rise in interest rates over the previous two years has prompted warnings about the business cycle outlook from an economist.Yet the forecast still...

It is interesting to me that, with as important and liquid as the inflation-linked bond market is, the tactical allocation between TIPS and nominal bonds is at best an afterthought for most...

We wrote this four-part inflation series in response to the graph below, implying that prices are on the same inflation roller coaster ride as the 1970s. If you have read the first three parts of this...

The long-term return forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to ease in January, dipping to an annualized 6.6% total return, based on the average for three models (defined below).GMI is a...

Stocks rebounded yesterday ahead of today’s job report, with expectations for 185,000 new jobs to have been created, down from 216,000 last month.Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to...

As FOMC rides into the sunset until March, the US Dollar Index is left to fend for itself amid the hawkish (or at least not yet dovish) echos of Jerome Powell’s assertion that the market should...

The Fed disappointed markets yesterday, crushing March rate-cut hopes. This should have been expected as the central bank's priority is to eliminate any possibility of inflation returning. As...

By Padhraic GarveyWe are a bit surprised the market has not moved more on the Fed’s firm preference for a holding pattern on rates. Bottom line we see pressure for yields to edge higher on a...

Part One of this series led with a graph implying that we are embarking on an inflation rollercoaster for the next ten years, similar to the experience of 1965 to 1982.Parts One and Two explained the...