Market Overview

We expect the Fed rate cut cycle to start soon and proceed gradually. Barring a financial crisis or a sharp and unexpected change in the path of inflation or unemployment, the upcoming rate-cutting...

September has just started and is already living up to its reputation of being the toughest month of the year for stocks. The stock market sold off after the open and August's weak M-PMI report was...

Stocks fell sharply yesterday, with the S&P 500 down more than 2% and the Nasdaq 100 dropping 3.15%. These declines aren’t entirely unexpected, and some of the drop is due to the end-of-day surge...

Stocks rallied to close out the last week of August. The $6.5 billion buy imbalance, which overwhelmed the market in an illiquid trading session ahead of the three-day weekend, could have had...

Unnoticed by the vast majority of investors, a major macro regime change is underway. This could prove to be a catalyst for a major regime change in financial markets in coming years. Already it...

In a recent discussion with Adam Taggart via Thoughtful Money, we quickly touched on the similarities between the U.S. and Japanese monetary policies. However, that discussion warrants a deeper dive....

The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve is poised to un-invert under disinflationary, possibly coming deflationary pressure We know the story. A disgusting virus spread across the world, terrorizing society into...

If a recession in the US has started or is imminent, the threat has yet to show up in the latest run of nowcasts for third-quarter GDP. That’s no guarantee that the economy will continue expanding,...

Last week, before she accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination for president, Vice President Kamala Harris threw her support behind President Joe Biden’s tax proposals for 2025, which include a...

There is a very interesting case to be made for investing in the “old economy” today. Sentiment toward commodities and their producers has fallen to a degree of extreme bearishness you would expect...

The latest retail sales report seems to have given Wall Street something to cheer about. Headlines touting resilience in consumer spending increased hopes of a “soft landing” boosting the stock...

The economy isn’t always decisive in US presidential elections, except when it is. Think Herbert Hoover in 1932 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. Each lost the presidency to a challenger primarily...

The S&P 500 ended the day up about 40 basis points yesterday, showing little reaction to the rising VIX, increased 1-month implied correlation indexes, a steeper yield curve, and a weakening US...

Volatility poked its way through the front door for a moment, but then quickly hit the road again. The growth scare over the first weekend of August feels like a memory today with stocks gaining back...