Market Overview

From time to time, you will read that the Federal Reserve is trying to “thread the needle” on rates. That is, they don’t want to keep rates too high for too long, lest they sink the economy, nor...

There was a brief period earlier this year when US shares gave up the leadership crown to commodities, but American stocks have retaken the performance throne in June, based on a set of ETFs through...

Stocks finished Friday slightly lower as June OPEX passed. This week, we head into the quarter’s end, closing out the year’s first half. It should be a fairly uneventful week with little on the macro...

If the Bank of England’s decision on Thursday to leave interest rates unchanged is a guide, the outlook for the start date for a US rate cut may be further down the line than generally assumed. There...

As we approach the halfway mark of 2024, I figured it’d be constructive to check in on the results of this year’s record-breaking elections. The numbers are particularly striking: Approximately 4.2...

By nearly any measure you cite, US equities are enjoying a stellar run. Despite numerous global risks, investor sentiment for American shares is resilient. The question, as always, is when is it...

Recession talk for the US is on the march again. Although there’s still room for debate on the near-term business-cycle outlook, some indicators are highlighting decelerating growth that could be the...

Core and Median inflation continue to decline. This is not really a surprise; since early 2023 the clear direction has been to lower inflation. The debate has not been about whether inflation was...

This will be a quiet week with very little data and a day off mid-week. The retail sales data will come on Tuesday; Tuesday will also be VIX Opex; Wednesday, the markets will be closed, and Friday...

Recently, James Grant, editor of the Interest Rate Observer, was asked about his outlook for interest rates. He sees interest rates moving in a cyclical pattern, potentially rising for another...

Stocks finished higher after the CPI report fell below analysts’ expectations and swap pricing. The CPI headline y/y and m/m missed swap pricing, something we haven’t seen frequently in recent...

A surprise 0.2% MoM core CPI inflation print after a similar reading for April core PCE deflator offers good news for the Fed in its fight to ease price pressures. This needs to become the trend...

The CPI report for May was definitely good news. In April, core CPI was +0.29% and Median CPI was +0.35%; this month those figures were +0.16% for core and +0.25% (est) for median. That would be the...