Market Overview

Housing is among the most interest-rate sensitive sectors of the economy. It’s also one of the most cyclical and crucial inputs for the business cycle. On that basis, one could reasonably expect...

April was a rough month for investors, but the rebound in asset prices in the early days of May has revived expectations that the worst has passed. A key catalyst for the turnaround in sentiment:...

It was a volatile week of trading heavily influenced by hedging flows, as noted by sharp rises and declines in implied volatility measures such as the VIX. This makes grasping the underlying message...

Last week was big for macro and markets.Today’s piece is going to cover: The Fed’s dovish announcement: a sizeable tapering of their Quantitative Tightening program; A potential upcoming...

Investor psychology is one of the most significant reasons individuals consistently fall short of their investment goals. While one of the most common truisms is that “investors buy high and...

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April jobs report on Friday, revealing a cooling labor market with narrower job gains across several major industries. The report showed that the U.S....

Preliminary estimates of second-quarter US GDP activity suggest output may stabilize after two straight quarters of slower growth, based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by...

The Fed held its policy meeting, leaving rates unchanged but slowing down quantitative tightening. Today's focus shifts to US labor data: strong figures could justify the Fed's hawkish stance of...

The Fed meetings seem to create more confusion than needed, but it is what is what it is. I know that even though I wrote yesterday that at 2:35 PM ET, it was possible that we saw the usual FOMC press...

Most of the major asset classes retreated in April. The overall losses mark the worst month for global markets so far in 2024, based on a set of ETFs.The upside outliers last month were limited to...

In an op-ed for the Washington Post on November 5, 2010, Ben Bernanke did a victory lap, praising the Fed’s efforts in stemming the financial crisis. In the article, he discusses how QE and...

The S&P 500 was down about 1.6% heading into the FOMC meeting and Quarterly Refunding Announcement today. The VIX 1-Day was up 8.3 points to 18.10, which suggests much of the decline yesterday...

The value of modeling recession risk-based multiple indicators is a hardy perennial. The latest example comes by way of aggregating trends in the 50 US state economies for estimating the odds that an...

Tomorrow, markets expect the Fed to have a similar message as the previous meetings. While rate cuts are highly unlikely, a hawkish surprise from Powell could jolt markets. Watch key indicators like...