Market Overview

Stocks closed flattish on Friday after a weaker-than-expected University of Michigan report showed that consumer confidence plunged and inflation expectations rose.The report caused a rather sharp...

When the yield curve flattens and eventually inverts, you worry.But it’s when a recession hits, the Fed cuts rates and the curve steepens that you become s**t scared. Yield curve dynamics...

When it comes to the financial markets, investors have a litany of investment vehicles to choose from. The choices are nearly unlimited, from brokered certificates of deposit to complex derivative...

Investors are gearing up for what is expected to be an eventful week ahead. CPI inflation and retail sales data will be in focus. In addition, Home Depot and Walmart report quarterly earnings. Looking...

There are many ways to monitor recession risk, but any one indicator in isolation is flawed. Context in the form of reviewing a wide variety of metrics is essential for minimizing noise. But in the...

Housing is among the most interest-rate sensitive sectors of the economy. It’s also one of the most cyclical and crucial inputs for the business cycle. On that basis, one could reasonably expect...

It was a volatile week of trading heavily influenced by hedging flows, as noted by sharp rises and declines in implied volatility measures such as the VIX. This makes grasping the underlying message...

Last week was big for macro and markets.Today’s piece is going to cover: The Fed’s dovish announcement: a sizeable tapering of their Quantitative Tightening program; A potential upcoming...

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April jobs report on Friday, revealing a cooling labor market with narrower job gains across several major industries. The report showed that the U.S....

The April job report, a significant indicator of the U.S. labor market's health, revealed a cooling trend with slower job growth.The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April job report on...

Preliminary estimates of second-quarter US GDP activity suggest output may stabilize after two straight quarters of slower growth, based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by...

The Fed held its policy meeting, leaving rates unchanged but slowing down quantitative tightening. Today's focus shifts to US labor data: strong figures could justify the Fed's hawkish stance of...

There is a popular meme that the government has an incentive to inflate, because the same debt is worth less in real terms at a higher price level. If inflation is high enough, then the government (it...

The Fed meetings seem to create more confusion than needed, but it is what is what it is. I know that even though I wrote yesterday that at 2:35 PM ET, it was possible that we saw the usual FOMC press...