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GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian shares inch up as cautious investors await U.S. data, earnings

Published 07/16/2019, 11:22 AM
Updated 07/16/2019, 11:30 AM
GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian shares inch up as cautious investors await U.S. data, earnings
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* MSCI Asia ex-Japan +0.17%; Nikkei -0.74%
* U.S. retail sales data in focus
* Citigroup interest margin decline highlights headwinds for
banks
* Asian stock markets: https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

By Andrew Galbraith
SHANGHAI, July 16 (Reuters) - Major Asian equity indicators
nudged higher on Monday as investors awaited U.S. retail sales
data and corporate earnings to gauge the health of the world's
biggest economy, with markets remaining focused on a likely U.S.
rate cut this month.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
.MIAPJ0000PUS was up 0.17%, with losses in Chinese shares
capping gains elsewhere in the region.
China's blue-chip CSI300 index .CSI300 was 0.4% lower.
South Korea's KOSPI .KS11 , which spent the morning
flickering between small gains and losses, was last up 0.24%.
Shares in Taiwan .TWII were flat, while the Australian market
.AXJO was up less than 0.1%.
Japan's Nikkei stock index .N225 dipped 0.74%.
Encouraging Chinese economic data on Monday had provided
some relief to investors worried about the economic outlook, but
broad pressure across global business and investment from
Sino-U.S. trade frictions and slowing world growth reinforced
expectations of policy easing by major central
banks. "A U.S. rate cut should make it easier for central banks in
Asia to ease their policies, boosting domestic demand in the
region," said Yukino Yamada, senior strategist at Daiwa
Securities.
"We still don't know what to expect from the U.S.-China
trade war ... But there are vague expectations that Trump will
be quiet during summer and the issue will be put on the back
burner until near China's National Day (in early October)," she
said.
Overnight, however, U.S. President Donald Trump showed no
signs of softening his stance on China, warning that Washington
could pile on more pressure as bilateral trade talks sputtered
along. U.S. data on Tuesday is expected to show that retail sales
gained 0.1% in June, according to the median estimate of
economists polled by Reuters. But a decline in net interest
margin reported by Citigroup C.N in its mixed quarterly report
underlined risks for financial firms in a lower interest rate
environment.
That decline partly overshadowed better-than-expected profit
numbers, triggering a fall in shares of other banks on concerns
that it would presage lower profits across the industry.

"Clearly the biggest risk to the most recent rally is the
earnings season," said Ryan Felsman, senior economist at CommSec
in Sydney.
Signs of trade tensions weighing on corporate profits and
the fading impact of tax cuts would underscore the U.S. Federal
Reserve's concerns over slowing business investment, he said.
"That feeds into the narrative of concerns around the global
economy, the slowing in the U.S. economy, but also the need for
potentially more aggressive rate cuts from the Fed to support
the U.S. economy going forward," Felsman said.
Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis point cut by the Fed
at its meeting at the end of this month.
The quiet Asian trading session followed an equally subdued
day on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI
rising 0.1%, the S&P 500 .SPX gaining 0.02% and the Nasdaq
Composite .IXIC adding 0.17%.

STEEPER CURVE
Ahead of the release of U.S. retail sales figures, signs of
an improving economic situation in the United States have led to
a steepening of the U.S. yield curve, led by higher longer-dated
yields.
On Tuesday, the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes
US10YT=RR turned down slightly to 2.0852% compared with its
U.S. close of 2.092% on Monday.
The two-year yield US2YT=RR , closely watched as a gauge of
traders' expectations for Fed fund rates, extended its falls to
1.829% compared with a U.S. close of 1.833%.
In the currency market, the dollar was up 0.06% against the
yen at 107.97 JPY= , and the euro EUR= ticked up 0.02%,
buying $1.1259.
The dollar index .DXY , which tracks the greenback against
a basket of six major rivals, was flat at 96.933.
Oil prices found some support after earlier easing on signs
that the impact of a tropical storm on U.S. Gulf Coast
production would be short-lived. O/R
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 , added 0.07%
to $59.62 a barrel and Brent crude LCOc1 , the global
benchmark, gained 0.23% to $66.63 per barrel.
Trade in gold echoed the cautious tone of equity markets
ahead of U.S. data. The precious metal was last down 0.02% on
the spot market XAU= at $1,413.40 per ounce. GOL/

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