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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks bide time as U.S. election caution sets in

Published 10/23/2020, 02:39 PM
Updated 10/23/2020, 02:40 PM
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* Global stocks little impressed by U.S. debate
* Hopes of stimulus deal support risk assets
* U.S. debt yields at 4 1/2-month high on spending worries
* Asian stock markets: https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
* European shares seen recovering some ground

By Hideyuki Sano
TOKYO, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Global stocks barely budged on
Friday as investors tightened positions with less than two weeks
to go before the U.S. presidential election and awaited a
breakthrough in stimulus talks in Washington.
The final debate between U.S. President Donald Trump and his
Democrat challenger Joe Biden on Thursday presented few
surprises for election watchers but slightly reinforced investor
caution heading into the Nov. 3 poll. U.S. S&P 500 futures ESc1 had dipped slightly after the
debate but were mostly flat by late Asian trade. The underlying
index had gained about 0.5% in the previous day on hopes that
the U.S. Congress and the White House could soon strike a deal
on another round of COVID-19 stimulus.
European stocks are expected to claw back some of this
week's losses, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures STXEc1 up 0.4%
before opening of cash trading.
Shares in Asia hardly moved, with MSCI's broadest index of
Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS flat while
Japan's Nikkei .N225 ticked up 0.2%.
The CSI300 index of mainland China .CSI300 also edged up
0.2%.
At Thursday's debate, Biden renewed his criticism of Trump's
handling of the coronavirus pandemic as Trump levelled unfounded
corruption accusations at Biden and his family. "The sense I get looking at US futures is that the market,
after this debate, does not appear very convinced that Mr Trump
was able to increase his odds of winning the elections," said
Chetan Seth, Equity strategist at Nomura in Singapore.
A widening lead in polls by Biden is prompting many
investors to bet on a Biden presidency and also a "blue sweep",
where Democrats win both chambers of Congress.
While Democrats plan to raise taxes on corporate profits and
capital gains could hit share prices, their pledge on large
stimulus is seen as offsetting those blows.
"A lot of people are now talking about K-shaped recovery in
the economy. My sense is that the money will move around within
the stock market, rather than flowing outside under the 'triple
blue' scenario," said a senior manager of trading at a major
Japanese bank.
The clean energy sector is seen as a potential winner at the
expense of traditional energy firms under a Biden presidency.
The Dow Jones oil and gas index .DJUSEN is down nearly 49%
this year. Biden reiterated his campaign pledge of
net-zero-emissions by 2050.
The Nasdaq index .IXIC , which had led the market's rally,
has underperformed lately, having lost 1.4% so far this week
also on concerns Democrats could take a harder stance on big
tech firms. Investors could also take profits on them before any
increase in capital gains tax.
"A blue wave may lead to concerns about the impact on the
tech sector, while a Biden win and a split Congress may imply
another four years of limited policy changes and politicking,"
said Mary Nicola, senior economist at Pinebridge Investments in
Singapore.
Expectations of bigger government stimulus have also boosted
U.S. borrowing costs.
The 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield US10YT=RR rose to 4
1/2-month high of 0.870% on Thursday and last stood at 0.853%.
In the near-term, investors looked to talks on another
round of COVID-19 stimulus.
U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi reported
progress in talks with the Trump administration for another
round of financial aid, saying legislation could be hammered out
"pretty soon". In the currency market, the dollar bounced back from
Wednesday's seven-week low but stayed under pressure as
investors began to wager on a Biden presidency and big U.S.
stimulus.
The euro traded at $1.1795 EUR= , down 0.2% but still up
0.7% on the week.
The yen changed hands at 104.77 yen per dollar JPY= .
The Chinese yuan stood at 6.6767 per dollar in offshore
trade CNH= , off 27-month high of 6.6278 touched on Wednesday.
Oil prices eased slightly, giving up part of the previous
day's gains. O/R
Brent futures LCOc1 dropped 0.6% to $42.19 per barrel
while U.S. crude futures CLc1 shed 0.7% to $40.35 per barrel.

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