Market Overview

Core and Median inflation continue to decline. This is not really a surprise; since early 2023 the clear direction has been to lower inflation. The debate has not been about whether inflation was...

The latest consumer survey data from the New York Federal Reserve had interesting data. “The New York Fed’s latest consumer survey found that expectations that stocks will be higher in the next 12...

This will be a quiet week with very little data and a day off mid-week. The retail sales data will come on Tuesday; Tuesday will also be VIX Opex; Wednesday, the markets will be closed, and Friday...

Recently, James Grant, editor of the Interest Rate Observer, was asked about his outlook for interest rates. He sees interest rates moving in a cyclical pattern, potentially rising for another...

Stocks finished higher after the CPI report fell below analysts’ expectations and swap pricing. The CPI headline y/y and m/m missed swap pricing, something we haven’t seen frequently in recent...

The CPI report for May was definitely good news. In April, core CPI was +0.29% and Median CPI was +0.35%; this month those figures were +0.16% for core and +0.25% (est) for median. That would be the...

Investors are bracing for the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision after better-than-expected May CPI. All eyes are now on Powell's press conference after the decision. Investors should now be...

Strong job growth suggests the Fed may delay interest rate cuts. However, despite robust job numbers, a decrease in job openings could show lower inflation ahead. The bond market doesn't yet reflect...

More than a few individuals were active in the markets in 1999-2000, but many participants today were not. I remember looking at charts and writing about the craziness in markets as the fears of...

Stocks finished flat on an uneventful trading session. However, the market felt more risk-off with the 1-month implied correlation index and the VIX moving higher. Typically, when the VIX and the...

The news flow will be heavy again this week, with inflation reports, a Fed meeting, and Treasuries being auctioned off in the 1 PM ET time slot. Additionally, today, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) will start...

Recent economic estimates suggest US growth has slowed compared with previous estimates, but today’s revised GDP nowcast for the second quarter still points to a modest pickup in output over Q1. The...