Market Overview

The rally in global assets broadened in March, lifting nearly every slice of the major asset classes. The downside outlier: bonds in emerging markets. Otherwise, last month delivered a clean sweep of...

A busy week lies ahead, with tons of data and much Fed speak. This will make for plenty of headlines and possibly a volatile week as the focus shifts back to the economy.Powell will continue his West...

My Best Tips for Trading Japanese InterventionIn this video, I talk about: What intervention is When it could happen What to watch for How to trade it

At last week’s FOMC meeting, Jerome Powell said, “We think financial conditions are weighing on the economy.” His comments seem sensible, given the following:The Fed is reducing its...

As the steadier measures of inflation (core, median, or sticky depending on your preferences) have started to overshoot expectations slightly – the y/y measures continue to decline, but slower...

After a volatile 2023, CEO confidence seems to be rebounding in 2024. A number of readings on CEO sentiment, including our own Late Earnings Report Index (LERI), seem to be indicating that...

It will be a strange week, given the calendar’s lunar eclipse on Monday and the market’s closure on Friday. Add to that a PCE report on Friday, the day the market is closed, and a Jay...

The US economy remains on track to post a moderate growth rate in the upcoming first-quarter GDP report, but the expansion shows signs of slowing.Output for the January-through-March period is...

It is long past the time that we face the fact that “Social Security” is facing a retirement crisis. In June 2022, we touched on this issue, discussing the stark realities confronting...

Since the beginning of March, the S&P 500 has been undergoing a nice consolidation, which passed between the day before yesterday and yesterday.However, the index did manage to hit the upper trend...

The Federal Reserve lifted its outlook for core PCE inflation in 2024 but reaffirmed expectations that interest rates will probably fall by the end of the year. Despite the apparent conflict, the...

Four fairly quick observations on this Federal Reserve meeting day, not all of which have anything to do with the Fed:1. The FOMC today announced unchanged policy for now on the overnight interest...

The sharp runup in US inflation in 2021-2022 revived the idea that a so-called real assets portfolio is crucial for asset allocation strategies.But with the peaking of inflation in mid-2022,...

The Fed added Quantitative Easing (QE) to its monetary policy toolbox in 2008. At the time, the financial system was imploding. Fed Chair Ben Bernanke bought $1.5 trillion U.S. Treasury and...