Market Overview

We are observing a true regime change in markets. And for macro investors, it’s incredibly important to stay vigilant and on top of our game at this stage. It all starts with this: the Fed is behind...

The yield curve's longest inversion in history ended recently. Despite many predictions, a recession did not follow the inversion. This captures a valuable lesson for investors. For less than $9 a...

European and US stock futures are trading mixed, while investors are paying close attention to economic numbers from China and Europe. Over in Europe, we saw the German Final CPI m/m number matching...

The U.S. economy could be heading into choppy waters, and investors may be wise to buckle up. Recent data suggest that storm clouds could be gathering, with declines in U.S. manufacturing, a...

Last week's decline hints at a growing unease among market participants. With the labor market softening further, is the Fed too late on rate cuts? The S&P 500’s recent struggles signal cautious...

The macro evidence suggests we are at a major turning point. It’s the sort of thing that could precipitate a reversal in the relative performance of commodities versus stocks. On its own, the stock...

This week all eyes will turn to prices, with the CPI report on Wednesday, the PPI report on Thursday, and import/export prices on Friday. Analysts expect the CPI report to show a 0.2%...

This past week, I heard an interview with President Trump, during which he postulated that “this country will go into a depression if she wins the presidency.”  Now, believe me, I am no fan of...

Bloomberg reported on Tuesday after the stock market closed, that the Department of Justice (DOJ) had sent Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation. We...

The current lineup of US GDP nowcasts for the third quarter continue to indicate a softer but still solid growth rate. Wall Street is wondering if the upcoming payrolls report for August will change...

Stocks ended the day mostly flat, resembling a pause. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the market trade lower today, ahead of the payroll report, which is due tomorrow. Implied volatility will likely...

Part One of this article described the burgeoning bull steepening yield curve environment and what it implies about economic growth and Fed policy. It also discussed the three other predominant types...

We expect the Fed rate cut cycle to start soon and proceed gradually. Barring a financial crisis or a sharp and unexpected change in the path of inflation or unemployment, the upcoming rate-cutting...

September has just started and is already living up to its reputation of being the toughest month of the year for stocks. The stock market sold off after the open and August's weak M-PMI report was...