Market Overview

Recent market volatility has raised questions about the staying power of the rally for global assets that began in late-2023. A clear warning sign has yet to emerge, based on a set of ETF pairs that...

After over two years of Fed pauses, pivots, and uncertainty, the Fed has finally kicked off a new cycle by cutting its overnight rate by 50 bps and delivering an even more dovish dot plot than...

The recent run of forecasts from some corners that a US recession is imminent, or possibly already underway, continues to look premature. Although it’s short-sighted to dismiss various risks that are...

With investors eager for a rate cut, I believe the Federal Reserve will proceed with caution, opting for a 25bps reduction rather than a more aggressive 50bps cut. Cutting too much, too fast would...

Today’s retail sales report could be critical, especially if it comes in weak, as the market is currently uncertain about the number of rate cuts expected tomorrow. Currently, Fed Fund Futures show...

Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to cut rates for the second time this year, following its initial cut in June. The Deposit Facility Rate, which determines the interest banks earn...

Be prepared for this week's Federal Reserve meeting. Here are 4 ways to trade the upcoming interest rate cut 

The August jobs report highlighted a critical reality: the labor market is cooling off. While the headline figures seemed decent, the underlying data reveals clear warning signs that worker demand is...

Today’s revised estimate of US economic activity for the upcoming third-quarter GDP report continues to point to a slower-but-still-solid growth rate, based on the median nowcast for several...

Over the past few decades, the global landscape of technological research has undergone an unprecedented transformation. While the United States once dominated this strategic field, China has...

Let me start with the punch line, which I think will not be a very common take: this report does not stop the Fed from easing 50bps next week, and honestly doesn’t really even hurt the chances very...

Forget about a recession in the US. Currently, it is China's recession/depression that is weighing on oil prices, global bond yields, and the dollar. Weak Chinese demand for oil caused OPEC today to...

We have written many articles and commentaries forecasting interest rates. The analysis has used prior and current inflation and economic activity. Additionally, we have looked at market data on...

The highly anticipated U.S. August CPI report comes out on Wednesday morning. Headline annual inflation is seen rising 2.5% and core CPI is forecast to increase 3.2%. The CPI print could potentially...