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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, gold and oil whipsawed as Iran strikes spark Mideast war fears

Published 01/08/2020, 02:38 PM
Updated 01/08/2020, 02:40 PM
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, gold and oil whipsawed as Iran strikes spark Mideast war fears
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* MSCI Asia ex-Japan down 0.72%, Nikkei -1.57%
* European share markets expected to open lower Wednesday
* Iran launches missile attacks on Iraqi bases housing U.S.
forces
* U.S. President Trump to make statement Wednesday
* Crude futures, gold up amid fears of further escalation
* Asian stock markets: https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

By Andrew Galbraith
SHANGHAI, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Asian shares tumbled on
Wednesday, while oil, safe-haven Treasury prices and gold shot
higher after Iran fired rockets at U.S.-led forces in Iraq,
stoking fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East.
European equity markets were expected to open lower, with
pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures STXEc1 down 0.77%, German DAX
futures FDXc1 off 0.91% and FTSE futures FFIc1 0.45% lower.
Iran's missile attacks on the Ain Al-Asad air base and
another in Erbil, Iraq, early in the day came hours after the
funeral of an Iranian commander whose killing in a U.S. drone
strike has intensified tensions in the region. Early reports of the attacks sparked a sudden rise in risk
aversion on worries over how the United States would respond.
Asian equities later trimmed losses, Japan's yen stabilised and
U.S. bonds tempered their rally as investors paused for breath
after U.S. President Donald Trump said in a tweet that "All is
well!", and "So far, so good!".
"We are getting exaggerated moves but that's of course
volatility playing. Markets simply hate uncertainty. It's an old
adage but it definitely holds true in the current situation -
markets can price risks but they can't price uncertainty," said
James McGlew, executive director of corporate stockbroking at
Argonaut in Perth.
In his tweet late Tuesday, Trump said that an assessment of
casualties and damage from the strikes was under way and that he
would make a statement on Wednesday morning. A U.S. official
said the United States was not aware of any casualties from the
strikes. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
.MIAPJ0000PUS was down 0.72%, having dropped more than 1%
earlier in the day. China's blue-chip CSI300 index .CSI300 was
1.18% lower.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 dipped 1.57%, paring earlier losses
of more than 2%, while Australian shares .AXJO clawed back
from a more-than-1% drop to shed 0.13%. U.S. S&P500 e-mini stock
futures ESc1 , which had earlier tumbled nearly 1.7%, were down
0.38%.
Rob Carnell, Asia-Pacific chief economist at ING in
Singapore, said possible further escalation of tensions between
Iran and the United States could still provoke a prolonged
negative market reaction.
"If you see U.S. treasuries rallying a bit this morning,
expect them to rally quite a bit further should there be a
forceful response from the United States, which I'd imagine
there would be...from a market perspective I think this one
could run and run," he said.
The yield on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes
US10YT=RR last stood at 1.7742%, down from a U.S. close of
1.825% on Tuesday, but up from session lows. U.S. 10-year
Treasury futures TYc1 had earlier peaked at their highest
level since November, and were last up 0.29%.
The two-year yield US2YT=RR fell to 1.5061% compared with
a U.S. close of 1.546%.
The yen, which had hit its strongest point against the
greenback since October in morning trade, gave up most of its
gains later in the day. The U.S. currency was last down 0.11%
against the yen at 108.30 JPY= .
The euro EUR= was 0.03% weaker, buying $1.1147 and the
dollar index .DXY , which measures the greenback against six
major peers, was 0.06% lower at 96.949.
In commodity markets, global benchmark Brent crude futures
LCOc1 shot back above $70 per dollar to their highest level
since mid-September in the initial hours after Iran's strikes.
They were last up 1.08% at $69.01 per barrel, while U.S.
crude CLc1 added 0.96% to $63.30 a barrel.
"I don't think many investors try and anticipate global
politics, especially when it involves Trump ... they are
probably more inclined to price things in as they come," said
Hasan Tevfik, senior research analyst at MST Marquee.
Gold also fell below a key psychological level as initial
fears eased. The precious metal was 1.30% higher on the spot
market XAU= at $1,594.33 per ounce, having earlier blasted
through $1,600. GOL/
On Tuesday, shares on Wall Street had pulled back amid
worries over U.S.-Iran tensions. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average .DJI fell 0.42%, the S&P 500 .SPX lost 0.28% and the
Nasdaq Composite .IXIC dropped 0.03%. .N
Analysts say the escalating Middle East tensions are likely
to keep markets on edge.
"If it does look like we've got U.S. casualties, then I
don't think Trump is going to just stand back and take that,"
said Matt Simpson, a senior market analyst at Gain Capital in
Singapore.
"World War III has been thrown around. I don't think we're
there yet. But it does look like Iraq II."


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Tensions in the Middle East https://www.reuters.com/live-events/tensions-in-the-middle-east-id2917592
Iran missile strikes jolt gold https://tmsnrt.rs/2sNtCJB
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