* S&P500 futures down 0.5% at 3-month lows
* European stocks fall 0.4-0.7%
* Money market futures see 50% chance of Fed cut by July
* Oil plunges, Shanghai copper at 2-year low
* Bond rally drives yields lower
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh
* Asian stock markets: https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
By Marc Jones
LONDON, June 3 (Reuters) - Investors sought the safety of
government bonds, the yen, the Swiss franc and gold on Monday,
as rising trade tensions dented stocks again and pushed oil
close to bear market territory.
After a torrid May that wiped $3 trillion off global
equities, the worsening trade and broader economic backdrop made
for a jarring start to June.
European shares fell further and the Swiss franc jumped to a
two-year high as Beijing sent another shot across Washington's
bows on trade and then euro zone data came in weak the main groundswell was in bonds.
German government bond yields -- which move inversely to
price -- were pinned at all-time lows and those on two-year U.S.
Treasuries were seeing their biggest two-day fall since early
October 2008, when the global financial crisis was kicking off.
"Bonds are more or less on fire and I think we are going to
spend the week with trade dominating everything else," said
Societe Generale global strategist Kit Juckes.
With German and UK political concerns and worries about
Italy's finances resurfacing too, "it is hard to think the yen
is not going to be at least one of the winners this week," he
said.
The Japanese currency rose, as did Europe's go-to safety
play, the Swiss franc, which rallied to its highest in nearly
two years against the euro. The euro hovered at $1.1171 EUR=
having been stuck in one of its tightest ranges ever against the
dollar. /FRX
Asia ex-Japan stocks had fared better overnight as gains in
South Korea .KS11 and India .BSESN offset weakness in Tokyo
and elsewhere. Chinese shares .CSI300 ended little changed
though the yuan faced pressure.
A private survey of China's manufacturing sector CNPMI=ECI
published on Monday suggested a modest expansion in activity as
export orders bounced from a contraction. Economists noted increased in new export orders pointed to
possible front-loading of U.S.-bound shipments to avoid
potential tariff hikes that U.S. President Donald Trump - who
kicked off a potentially confrontational state visit to Britain
on Monday - had threatened to slap on another $300 billion of
Chinese goods.
"Chinese companies probably see the current export
conditions as severe as during the China shock in 2015," said
Wang Shenshen, economist at Tokai Tokyo Research Center.
RISING TENSIONS, FALLING ACTIVITY
With the bitter trade weighing, factory activity contracted
in most Asian countries and the euro zone last month, surveys
showed. The euro zone's slowdown was for the fourth month running,
and at an accelerating pace, as slumping automotive demand,
Brexit and wider political uncertainty took their toll.
"The sector remains in its toughest spell since 2013," said
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.
Sino-U.S. tensions escalated again at the weekend as the two
countries clashed over trade, technology and security.
A senior Chinese official and trade negotiator said on
Sunday the United States could not use pressure to force a trade
deal, refusing to be drawn on whether the leaders of the two
countries would meet at the G20 summit at the weekend.
The standoff between the world's two largest economies goes
beyond trade, with tension running high ahead of the 30th
anniversary of a bloody Chinese military crackdown on protesters
around Beijing's Tiananmen Square.
China's Defence Minister Wei Fenghe warned the United States
not to meddle in security disputes over Taiwan and the South
China Sea, after acting U.S. Defence Secretary Patrick Shanahan
said Washington would no longer "tiptoe" around Chinese
behaviour in Asia. "No one now thinks a deal would be possible at the G20. It
is going to be a prolonged battle. Investors are rushing to the
safe assets," Mitsubishi's Fujito said.
BEWARE OF THE BEARS
The gloomy economic outlook has prompted traders to increase
bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates
sooner rather than later.
Fed funds rate futures 0#FF: are almost fully pricing in
two rate cuts this year, one by September, with more than a 50
percent chance of a move by July 30-31.
The 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield fell to as low as 2.07
percent US10YT=RR , a level last seen in September 2017.
In commodity markets, Brent oil futures LCOc1 tumbled 1.8%
to $60.86 per barrel. They have dropped almost 20 percent since
April, a move classed as a 'bear market' in trader parlance.
U.S. crude futures CLc1 dropped 1.3% too to below $53 a barrel
for the first time since mid-February.
Copper futures in Shanghai SCFc1 fell 0.5% to two-year
lows while safe-haven gold jumped as much as 0.5% to a 10-week
high of $1,312.4 per ounce XAU= .
The Mexican peso, hit by Trump's sudden threat on Friday to
impose tariffs, regained some stability, trading at 19.6266 to
the dollar MXN=D4 after its 2.5% fall on Friday.
Mexico's president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador hinted on
Saturday his country could tighten migration controls to defuse
tensions with Trump, saying he expected "good results" from
talks planned in Washington this week. <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Korea exports https://tmsnrt.rs/2Kn47VJ
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