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EMERGING MARKETS-Rupiah stumbles as rate cut looms, baht eases on budget gap

Published 07/02/2020, 12:47 PM
Updated 07/02/2020, 12:50 PM
© Reuters.

© Reuters.

* Graphic: World FX rates http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh
* Graphic: Foreign flows into Asian stocks https://tmsnrt.rs/3f2vwbA
* Rupiah slips 0.6%, Indonesian stocks hit one-week high
* Fed's accommodative stance may support inflows into
Asia-analyst

By Rashmi Ashok
July 2 (Reuters) - Indonesia's stocks and currency were
driven in opposite directions on Thursday by rising bets for a
rate cut, while the baht drifted lower on Thailand's plans for a
bigger budget deficit to revive its coronavirus-battered
economy.
The rupiah IDR= fell 0.6% and was on track for its sixth
straight losing session, after data on Wednesday showed
Indonesia's inflation rate slowed further in June to hover
slightly below the central bank's target range. ANZ Research analysts expect Bank Indonesia to cut rates in
the third quarter - the fourth time this year - while those at
ING say it will be "hard-pressed" to loosen policy in the near
term given the depreciation pressure on the rupiah.
The central bank agreed on Monday to buy low-yielding bonds
to help the government fund a bloated fiscal deficit.
"The currency has faced some weakness in recent days given
the risk-off tone as COVID-19 cases spike in Indonesia and
others parts of the globe with investors also growing uneasy
over plans for the central bank to monetise debt," analysts at
ING wrote in a note.
"We expect the rupiah to face depreciation pressure in the
coming days with the central bank stepping up its triple
intervention while sentiment remains fragile."
'Triple intervention' refers to BI's intervention in the
domestic non-deliverable forwards market, the spot foreign
exchange market and the bond market to stabilise the rupiah.
Indonesian stocks .JKSE , however, rose 1% to a one-week
high, buoyed by rate optimism and firmer regional share markets.
The baht THB=TH eased 0.3% after Thailand's parliament
began debate on Wednesday on a budget bill that projects a
larger deficit for the 2021 fiscal year starting Oct. 1, as the
government tries to prop up its flagging economy. "We note that robust current account surplus was one factor
anchoring baht positivity earlier and this is at threat now,"
analysts at Maybank wrote.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance
in latest minutes was seen supporting inflows to emerging
Asia. "These discussions underscore that the Fed is keen to
maintain accommodative policy for a prolonged period," said Wei
Liang Chang, macro strategist at DBS Bank.
"This should reassure markets, supporting portfolio flows
into Asia. Nevertheless, episodic COVID-19 resurgence could keep
Asian FX gains contained, as risks of a reintroduction of
lockdowns are not absent."

HIGHLIGHTS:
** Malaysia's 10-year benchmark yield fell 3.1 basis points
to 2.95% while its 3-year yield eased 0.2 bp to 2.224%​​
** Top gainers on the Jakarta stock index .JKSE include
Bank Oke Indonesia Tbk PT DNAR.JK up 33.73% and Global
Teleshop Tbk PT GLOB.JK up 31.51%
** Top gainers on the Singapore STI .STI include City
Developments Ltd CTDM.SI up 1.52% and Singapore Technologies
Engineering Ltd STEG.SI up 1.52%


Asia stock indexes and
currencies at 0344 GMT
COUNTRY FX RIC FX FX YTD INDEX STOCKS STOCKS
DAILY % DAILY YTD %
% %
Japan JPY= -0.02 +1.05 .N225 0.65 -5.88
China .SSEC 1.13 0.33
S>
India INR=IN +0.00 -5.57 .NSEI 0.00 -14.29
Indones IDR= -0.63 -2.80 .JKSE 0.83 -21.34
ia
Malaysi MYR= +0.02 -4.53 .KLSE 0.39 -4.31
a
Philipp PHP= +0.08 +1.77 .PSI 1.33 -19.49
ines
S.Korea .KS11 0.76 -3.41
C>
Singapo SGD= +0.01 -3.52 .STI 0.33 -18.74
re
Taiwan TWD=TP +0.46 +2.13 .TWII 0.65 -1.81
Thailan THB=TH -0.39 -3.70 .SETI 0.41 -14.23
d



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