* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh
By Ritvik Carvalho
LONDON, Aug 16 (Reuters) - World stocks rose on Friday as
expectations grew of further stimulus by central banks,
offsetting worries about slowing economic growth, which
intensified this week as the U.S. yield curve inverted for the
first time since 2007.
European shares opened higher, with the pan-European STOXX
600 .STOXX index 0.7% higher and the trade-sensitive DAX index
.DAX outperforming.
The London Stock Exchange said it was investigating a
technical glitch that delayed the opening of the UK's benchmark
FTSE 100 .FTSE index and FTSE midcap .FTMC .EU
Japan's Nikkei .N225 recouped early losses to end 0.06%
higher and Shanghai blue chips .CSI300 rose 0.3%, after
China's state planner said Beijing would roll out a programme to
boost disposable income MSCI's All Country World Index .MIWD00000PUS , which tracks
equities across 47 countries, was up 0.2% on the day. It was
still set for its third straight losing week, down 2.2%.
Stocks took a beating this week after the U.S. yield curve
-- the difference between yields on the U.S. 10-year and 2-year
Treasury bonds -- inverted for the first time since 2007.
US2US10=RR
Inversions typically precede recessions in the United
States, making the yield curve a closely watched economic
barometer.
"There are plenty of risks to keep investors on edge, from
the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China to the
potential for a no-deal Brexit," strategists at UBS wrote. The
uncertainty has undermined economies, they said, noting that
Germany gross domestic product shrank in the second quarter.
The U.S.-China trade war has intensified, with Beijing on
Thursday vowing to counter the latest round of U.S. tariffs on
$300 billion of Chinese goods With no settlement in sight, investors have hedged against a
global slowdown by buying bonds. Yields on 30-year debt
US30YT=RR dropped to a record low 1.916% on Thursday, leaving
them down 27 basis points for the week, the sharpest decline
since mid-2012.
That meant investors were willing to lend the government
money for three decades for less than the overnight rate.
Surprisingly strong U.S. retail sales had no effect on the bond
rally Some analysts say the current bond market is a different
beast than past markets and might not be sending a true
recession signal.
"The bond market may have got it wrong this time, but we
would not dismiss the latest recession signals on grounds of
distortions," said Simon MacAdam, global economist at Capital
Economics.
"Rather, it is of some comfort for the world economy that
unlike all previous U.S. yield curve inversions, the Fed has
already begun loosening monetary policy this time."
STIMULUS ON THE WAY
Futures FEDWATCH imply one chance in three the Federal Reserve
will cut rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting, and
see them reaching just 1% by the end of next year the European Central Bank's Olli Rehn on Thursday flagged
the need for easing in September Markets anticipate a cut in the ECB's deposit rate of at
least 10 basis points and a resumption of bond buying, sending
German 10-year bund yields DE10YT=RR to a record low of
-0.71%. GVD/EUR
"The underlying concern and drivers such as a recession and
the expectation for an aggressive policy response, fuelled by
Rehn's comments yesterday, has given the bond market another
boost at already elevated levels," said Commerzbank rates
strategist Rainer Guntermann.
Mexico overnight became the latest country to surprise with
a rate cut, the first in five years. Canada's yield curve inverted by the most in nearly two
decades, putting pressure on the Bank of Canada to act.
The talk of ECB easing knocked the euro back to a two-week
low of $1.1082 EUR=EBS and away from a top of $1.1230 early in
the week. It was last down 0.2% at $1.1083, helping lift the
dollar index to 98.268 .DXY and off the week's low of 97.033.
The collapse in bond yields continued to make non-interest-
paying gold look more attractive. It held at $1,512.7 XAU= ,
just off a six-year peak.
Oil prices rose. Brent crude LCOc1 futures added 1.39% to
$59.04. U.S. crude CLc1 rose 1.4% to $55.22 a barrel. O/R