Market Overview

Before we move into a review of the last few months of market action to learn what most investors did wrong, I think it is important to begin this missive by reposting something written by Robert...

The soft landing crew is increasingly taking over. No, the bond market’s base case is not a recession - it’s immaculate disinflation. Getting this call right is crucial...

Economists were expecting a decline, but the 1.1% slide in retail spending in December was deeper than expected. Even worse, the monthly slide marks the second straight decline. It could be noise, but...

Over the last few years, I’ve pointed out exhaustively how the current operating approach at the Fed towards monetary policy is distinctly different from past tightening cycles. In fact, it is...

Have a look at the last US inflation report; Answer the big question: Powell pivoted in 2019, is he going for it again in 2023? Analyze what’s priced in for bonds and equity markets: a...

Uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s rate plans and a slowing economy will continue to impact investor sentiment in 2023 I remain bullish on companies with strong fundamentals, reasonable...

The markets are once again testing the Fed The Fed's forward guidance doesn't seem to be working anymore It may result in the Fed discussing further balance sheet reduction to tighten financial...

The World Economic Forum (WEF) delivered its Global Risks Report for 2023. Ahead of the WEF’s Davos meeting, the report runs down global challenges businesses and individuals will likely face...

Recession forecasts are flying left and right lately, but the main pushback is the labor market. The growth rate for nonfarm payrolls is slowing, but gradually and the latest numbers for December...

Asia Asian markets have also joined a bull market. After being mired in a downward spiral for most of 2022 due to fears about the economic toll that viral restrictions would take, the...

December's CPI expected to show slowing inflation Q4 2022 earnings season begins with large Wall Street banks reporting Markets continue to focus on "bad news is good, good news is bad" theme Fed...

December's jobs report may be strong, but the labor market is yet to catch up with recessionary forces.Defying expectations, the latest job report for December shows a rise in employment by 0.2%....

Several estimates of fourth-quarter economic activity for the US have turned higher recently. The improvements clash with ongoing recession forecasts, but for the upcoming Q4 report the outlook...

Financial conditions have eased dramatically since the middle of October This has acted to support stock prices However, conditions are likely to start tightening again Something seems broken....