Market Overview

Last week we noted two market leadership signals, one positive (Semiconductor and Tech leadership) and one potentially negative (Healthcare relative to the broad market). The potential bottom in the...

Expect volatility to ramp up; I don’t care what the headlines say. The implied volatility curve of the S&P 500 looks scary, with lots of sharp twists and turns. The term structure of the...

Gen Zers, according to a recent survey, are overly optimistic about being wealthy. In fact, according to the survey, they are THE most financially optimistic generation. To wit: “Nearly...

US economic activity looks strong or weak, depending on the data sets you choose to craft a narrative. That’s always true in some sense for the simple reason: there’s always some slice of...

Interest in AI and ChatGPT has increased over the past few months. But, after a tumultuous 2022 and the retreat in February, investors remain cautious. In this article, we will look at the 5 stages...

The concept of diversification has long been hailed as the holy grail of investing. The idea is that spreading investments across different asset classes may reduce risk and create a more stable...

In 2022, the vast majority of hedge funds struggled to generate returns for their investors. As stock-picking funds generated negative returns, global macro funds came out the big winners. However, in...

As if the 2020s haven’t been strange enough, the United States military recently shot down several UFOs. Equally bizarre as the possibility of aliens, some investment analysts are projecting an...

There have been some positive surprises in economic data recently, and markets are busy trying to digest what this means for the Fed. Terminal rates are now priced at over 5% in the US and around 4%...

Over the last couple of decades, the assumption that inflation is mean-reverting to something approximating the Fed’s target level (or to where inflation expectations are supposedly –...

“Profit margins are probably the most mean-reverting series in finance. And if profit margins do not mean-revert, then something has gone badly wrong with capitalism.” – Jeremy...

Nigeria may not be on a lot of people’s radars, but it should be. Africa’s largest economy is in the early stages of a monetary experiment that could be coming to the U.S. sooner than you...

What can the Fed do in a sticky inflation situation?January’s Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) index came in hot at 5.4% vs. the expected 5% inflation rate. The market is already in a frenzy...

This week will be full of economic data, but the big data will come on March 1 and 3, when the ISM manufacturing and services indexes are released respectively. The ISM manufacturing survey is...