Market Overview

The two main forces driving global macro and markets are the rate of change of (nominal) growth and the monetary policy stanceReal-economy money creation and leading macro indicators inform us on the...

The Federal Reserve appears to be approaching the end of its rate-hiking policy, based on estimates from the bond market and economic conditions. But there’s a wild card that could derail the...

Last year, global hedge funds recorded the worst returns in 14 years after the Federal Reserve’s extremely tight monetary policy weighed on asset prices. On a more positive note, the...

What was the most disappointing element in the Fed minutes last night was that the Fed minutes didn't indicate that the committee members are of the mind frame of lowering the interest rate this year...

Losses dominated market activity for the major asset classes in 2022. Commodities and cash are the exceptions. The rest of the field lost ground last year, in some cases by hefty degrees, based on a...

U.S. stocks suffered their worst losses since 2008 The market could move higher in 2023 if the Fed slows interest-rate hikes and geopolitical tensions calm down But don’t expect interest rates...

2022 held a lot of hard lessons for investors This bear market is unique, but that doesn't mean it will last forever There is reason to think next year will be different We are approaching the close...

Investing in US stocks by way of risk factors has been a humbling experience this year. Short of a miraculous rally between now and Friday’s close, this realm of financial engineering is on...

Trading and investing are much more complex and challenging than most people think. While countless books have been written about how to trade and invest, most skip over what I consider to be the...

Fed’s Powell affirms rate hikes to continue in 2023, but markets show doubt Economist Roubini sees a prolonged recession as issues mount Central bankers need to do a better job, and more dissent...

There was nothing at all surprising about the Fed leaning against the exuberance of the market last week The Fed's target of a 2% inflation rate remains very far-fetched In the meantime, higher...

The week of Dec. 19 will be anything but slow and quiet. There will be a ton of economic data, and the highlights won’t come until Friday when we get PCE, the University of Michigan, durable...

Investors are closely watching earnings and economic data releases to gauge the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate hikes on the U.S. economy The Fed has been raising interest rates in an...

The bond market seems to be unimpressed by the Fed’s policy path Bond yields have hardly budged since this week’s FOMC meeting The Fed will need to get financial conditions to tighten to...