Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The global rise in interest rates may be peaking, a view that’s helped lift most corners of foreign bond markets year to date, based on a set of ETFs through yesterday’s close (Aug....

Global bonds rocked by Bank of Japan changes, Fitch downgrade, and Fed's outlook. Long-term bond market sees rare turbulence. Investors split: Buffett and Musk optimistic, Ackman bearish. A triple...

Interest rates continue climbing this year, but that hasn’t stopped bonds from rallying in 2023 when measured in total-return terms. The main exception is long-dated US Treasuries. Otherwise,...

Interest rates remain in the spotlight, with investors watching every economic data release and wondering when the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates.Well, one way to gauge this environment is to...

The future’s still uncertain, of course, and so all forecasts should be viewed cautiously. For perspective, let’s start with the one thing we know is true: We’re closer to the peak...

Our view of the attractiveness of bonds can be honed into an elevator pitch. It essentially boils down to a straightforward question – Is this time different?Have the forty-year pre-pandemic...

The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield at a relatively wide spread over its “fair value,” based on the average estimate of three models assembled by...

The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) has been trading in a very tight space for months. Or better stated, it has been narrowing/tightening for months.This all comes after a...

Last year’s famine has turned to feast in the bond market in 2023 as the riskiest slice of fixed income tops year-to-date results through yesterday’s close (May 17), based on a set of...

The wide spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and CapitalSpectator.com’s lesser fair-value estimate continues to narrow, albeit slowly. As outlined on these pages in recent months, the...

As the Federal Reserve continues to fight inflation by raising interest rates, the market is growing uncertain about future rate hikes.Today, we share a chart comparing the 10 Year Treasury...

Trailing yields have recently increased for most of the major asset classes, based on a set of ETF proxies. The question is whether the relatively high payout rates offset concerns about the...

Markets are understandably skittish about the health of the financial sector, which allows bonds to act as a safe haven. We would be wary of acting on large market moves ahead of a week heavy in event...

The 10-year Treasury rate continues to trade well above CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value estimate, but the days of a large premium look numbered. As evidence mounts that inflation continues to...