Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The US economy continues to roar. December's ISM purchasing managers survey showed that services activity remains strong. The JOLTS data, albeit a bit stale from November, showed job openings jumped....

Credit spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. A credit spread refers to the difference in yield between two bonds of similar maturity...

There’s little about recent history that reflects stability, with at least one exception: the average trailing payout rate on a globally diversified portfolio. There’s been a lot of churning in...

The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield rose in October relative to a “fair value” estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com. The increase marks the first time since April that the...

The Bond Market is saying “This Time is Different”. The Term Premium is on the rise, and it now sits close to the highest level for the last 10 years. But What is Term Premium? An investor looking...

The job report on Friday delivered a big downside surprise with just 12k jobs created in October. Certainly nowhere near my model’s estimates, but then again, given the size of revisions over the...

Stocks were modestly lower, but there was a clear risk-off tone throughout the day as rates rose sharply, along with the dollar. The CDX high-yield credit spread index also moved higher. Despite the...

The case for international diversification from a US-investor perspective usually centers on how to carve up a global equities allocation. The global bond footprint, by contrast, tends to be an...

There are no absolutes in economic forecasting. Thinking otherwise eventually leads to trouble. Case in point: the recession warning triggered nearly two years ago by an inverted Treasury yield curve...

The 10yr-2yr yield curve has un-inverted; yet in the media? Crickets Slowly I toined [cue Brooklyn accent], step by step… The 10yr-2yr yield curve un-inverted last week, turning from inversion to...

The beginning of the end for the current run of peak yields looks set to start tomorrow (Wed., Sep. 18) as the Federal Reserve is expected to roll out its first interest rate cut. On the eve of...

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates this week. The question is whether the bond market has fully priced in the start of policy easing? It’s tempting to say “yes” after reviewing...

The level of U.S. Treasury yields and the changing shape of the Treasury yield curve provide investors with critical feedback regarding the market’s expectations for economic growth, inflation, and...

Fixed income as an asset class is looking bullish as Fed Chairman Powell prepares to give a widely anticipated speech this Friday (Aug. 23). The central banker is expected to drop clues about the...