(Adds close of European markets)
* U.S.-Sino trade deal unlikely before 2020 U.S. election
* Yen rises to 1 1/2 year high vs dollar
* Gold remains above $1,500 an ounce
* U.S., European equity markets falter, China's gains
* Argentine peso plunges after primary elections
By Herbert Lash
NEW YORK, Aug 12 (Reuters) - Investors piled into gold,
safe-haven yen and bonds on Monday over nagging concerns about a
prolonged U.S.-China trade war and global growth, while
Argentina's peso plunged 22% after voters handed its president
an election mauling.
The yen rose to its highest in more than a year and a half
versus the dollar on the prospect the Japanese currency could
gain more in the case of a drawn-out U.S.-Sino trade conflict.
Concerns that a trade deal would not be reached before the
2020 U.S. presidential election grew after Goldman Sachs on
Sunday became the latest to cut its U.S. growth outlook and warn
a trade stand-off would fester past the election. U.S. stocks fell, following a decline in Europe, to push a
gauge of global equity performance lower. Stocks in China
rallied .CSI300 more than 1% after the yuan avoided further
drama CNY=PBOC after Chinese authorities allowed the yuan to
slip below the seven-per-dollar level last week.
Stocks in the near term lack a catalyst either from company
earnings, the Federal Reserve or a trade deal, said Rahul Shah,
chief executive of Ideal Asset Management in New York.
"The promise of a trade deal coming this year, I think
that's becoming less and less likely," Shah said. "That does set
up the market possibly for a correction at this point," he said.
Stocks could dip between 5% to 10% but prompt long-term
investors to enter the market as valuations fall, he said. Half
of Shah's portfolio is corporate debt with remainder tech stocks
and shares with solid dividends, he said.
MSCI's gauge of stock performance in 47 countries
.MIWD00000PUS fell 0.6% while Wall Street also fell.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI slid 265.06 points,
or 1.01%, to 26,022.38. The S&P 500 .SPX lost 23.37 points, or
0.80%, to 2,895.28 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC dropped
52.26 points, or 0.66%, to 7,906.88.
European shares also fell, with the pan-regional
FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 of leading European shares closing
down 0.31%, while Germany's export-heavy DAX .GDAXI off 0.12%.
Germany's Ifo survey echoed the growth concerns with its
measures for current conditions and economic expectations both
having worsened in the third quarter. Gold edged up, holding above the psychological $1,500 level.
Spot gold XAU= added 0.6% to $1,505.83 an ounce. The yen JPY= rose to its highest against the dollar since
March 2018 - barring a flash crash in January - gaining 0.32%
versus the greenback at 105.35 per dollar. The euro EUR= rose 0.12% to $1.1211, while the dollar
index .DXY fell 0.05%.
"The longer the trade war drags on, the more likely it would
weigh (on) the global outlook and crimp the world economy, a
negative for market morale," said Joe Manimbo, senior market
analyst at Western Union Business Solutions.
U.S. Treasury yields dropped across the board as trade
worries and political tensions around the world in places such
as Hong Kong and Argentina supported safe-haven assets.
U.S. long-term yields have fallen in six of the past nine
sessions, reflecting investors' diminished risk appetite. Bond
yields in Europe also were lower on the day.
Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes US10YT=RR rose 26/32
in price to push their yield lower at 1.6454%.
The Argentine peso ARS= collapsed, falling to 55.2545 to
the dollar, after voters snubbed market-friendly President
Mauricio Macri by giving the opposition a greater-than-expected
victory in Sunday's primary election. The Merval stock index .MERV fell 30% and declines of
between 18-20 cents in Argentina's benchmark 10-year bonds left
them trading at around 60 cents on the dollar or even lower.
The victory by Alberto Fernandez - whose running mate is
former Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner -
"paves the way for the return to left-wing populism that many
investors fear," consultancy Capital Economics told clients.
Oil prices rose despite worries about a global economic
slowdown and the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, which has reduced
demand for commodities such as crude. International benchmark Brent crude futures LCOc1 rose 8
cents to $58.61 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
CLc1 futures gained 14 cents to $54.64 a barrel.
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Rising gold prices https://tmsnrt.rs/2YD8nsu
GRAPHIC-Global assets in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2jvdmXl
GRAPHIC-World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh
GRAPHIC-MSCI All Country World Index Market Cap http://tmsnrt.rs/2EmTD6j
GRAPHIC-China trade shock interactive https://tmsnrt.rs/2SRopIf
Asia stock markets https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
Asia-Pacific valuations https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dr2BQA
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