(Updates vote results, prices throughout)
* Europe steadies after red start, S&P futures whipsawed
* Trump vows to go to Supreme Court for victory
* Final result might not be known for a days or weeks
* Tech stocks gain on talk a Trump win would favour sector
* Dollar rallies, 10-yr Treasury yields down sharply
* Gold retreats, oil clings to gains
* Graphic: 2020 asset performance http://tmsnrt.rs/2yaDPgn
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh
By Marc Jones and Wayne Cole
LONDON/SYDNEY, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Share markets and the
dollar whipsawed while bonds gained on Wednesday as results from
the U.S. presidential election proved far closer than polls had
predicted, potentially leaving the outcome in doubt for days or
even weeks.
Democratic contender Joe Biden took to the air to declare he
was optimistic about winning and called for all votes to be
counted, no matter how long it took.
President Donald Trump responded in trademark combative
style, saying he had won, that "they" were trying to steal the
election, and that he would go the U.S. Supreme Court to fight
for victory.
Investors had initially wagered that a possible Democratic
sweep by Biden could ease political risk and provide a boost to
fiscal stimulus.
But the mood quickly changed as Trump snatched Florida and
Ohio and ran much closer in other battleground states than polls
predicted. U.S. equity futures went on a wild ride, climbing as the
voting seemed to favour Trump, dropping when he vowed to make a
Supreme Court challenge, before clawing higher and steadying
again as betting markets leaned back in Biden's favour. .N
Europe's main bourses were also choppy on the prospect of a
long and bitter fight. London .FTSE , Paris .FCHI and
Frankfurt .DAX had all fallen as they opened, but turned
modestly positive ahead of U.S. trading having also shrugged off
data showing the region heading for a 'double dip' recession.
/EU Amundi's Head of Global Views Didier Borowski said
"prudence" was needed with the U.S. election result firmly in
limbo.
"We expect an 85% likelihood of knowing the winner within
ten days." However, there is a "real possibility" it could take
until January, including the Senate. "This environment is
conducive to volatility and a retreat towards safe havens."
(For the latest results and news on U.S. election, click: https://www.reuters.com/world/us-election2020
)
Dealers said investors may consider a status quo result
would lessen political uncertainty and remove the risk a Biden
administration would roll back corporate tax cuts.
The technology sector saw reason to gain, with NASDAQ
futures jumping 2.8% NQc1 . E-Mini futures were last up 1.2%, a
more than 2% swing from the 1% drop seen when Trump vowed to go
to the Supreme Court. .N
Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at
NatAlliance Securities, said the move in techs appeared to be a
play on the Senate potentially staying Republican.
Brenner said that under a Biden win tech stocks were seen
faring worse, as Democrats would be expected to tackle the
sector in hearings and because a potential rise in capital gains
tax would hit tech stocks harder.
Stéphane Monier, CIO at Lombard Odier said a divided
Congress would have "far-reaching implications for markets,
mostly because it means that any kind of pandemic recovery
package is still tough to approve".
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
In Asia, Japan's Nikkei .N225 finished 1.7% higher, while
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
.MIAPJ0000PUS edged up 0.4%.
Chinese blue chips .CSI300 rose 0.7%, with markets
uncertain how Sino-U.S. relations would develop.
Some investors hedged against the risk of a contested
election or at least a drawn-out process as mail-in ballots were
counted.
"It's a wait-and-see," said Matt Sherwood, head of
investment strategy at Perpetual in Sydney.
"I think the odds of a clean (Democrat) sweep are
diminishing, almost by the minute. That reduces the possibility,
or the likelihood at least of a large stimulus programme being
agreed to in the first days of a Biden administration."
That saw 10-year Treasury yields fall back to between 0.79%
and 0.82 US10YT=RR , having been at a five-month top of 0.93%
before the vote. The U.S. dollar also had a roller coaster session, falling,
then rising, before easing back again to sit up 0.2% against a
basket of currencies at 93.392 =USD . The euro bounced back to
$1.1717 from a hard overnight that had taken it as low as
$1.1602 EUR= . /FRX
Emerging market currencies pinballed. The Mexican peso
MXN= recovered from a 2% tumble taken when the sudden chance
of a Trump victory sparked nerves about U.S. trade policies
continuing to favour tariffs.
Norway's crown NOK= , Australia's risk-sensitive dollar
AUD=D3 and Britain's pound GBP=D3 were all fighting back
too, China's Yuan spun to hit a 2-week high while the Russian
rouble RUB= , which had been one of the hardest fallers in the
election run-up, gave back overnight gains. EMRG/FRX
STILL TO COME
Investors await the outcome of U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank
of England meetings this week, which are expected to at least
give a nod to further stimulus following the latest acceleration
of coronavirus infections in Europe and the U.S.
The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday cut interest rates
to near zero and boosted its bond-buying programme, adding to
the tidal wave of cheap money flooding the global financial
system. Gold had been buoyed by the extensive liquidity but ran into
profit-taking on Wednesday, losing as much 1% to $1,887 an
ounce.
Oil prices overcome their own wobbles to reclaim gains made
after industry data showed crude inventories in the United
States dropped sharply. O/R
Dealers said a returned Republican administration would
likely be more positive for the oil industry than the Democrats
that favour renewable technology.
U.S. crude futures CLc1 were up 96 cents, or 2.6% at
$38.62 a barrel, Brent crude LCOc1 futures gained 2.9% cents
to $40.86, while U.S.-listed solar shares of Enphase, Sunpower,
Sunrun and First Solar and Invesco's solar ETF TAN.P , which
have all been boosted by Biden's climate change concerns dropped
up to 7% in pre-market trade.
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Asia stock markets https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
Asia-Pacific valuations https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dr2BQA
Key emerging currencies being split by U.S. election https://tmsnrt.rs/326Toa7
Global markets since Trump's election https://tmsnrt.rs/3jNwnis
World stocks market cap rise over last four years https://tmsnrt.rs/2TL19hh
S&P 500 futures take a wild ride https://tmsnrt.rs/3k13Sxz
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