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GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares inch higher after Fed cut, BOJ keeps powder dry

Published 09/19/2019, 05:07 PM
Updated 09/19/2019, 05:10 PM
GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares inch higher after Fed cut, BOJ keeps powder dry
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* Europe's shares inch higher after Fed rate cut
* BOJ on hold, as expected; disappoints some who hoped for a
move
* Bond yields nudge up but stay below recent highs
* Oil futures drift higher as geopolitical risks remain
* Sterling waits for BoE's latest rate meeting, Brexit view

By Marc Jones
LONDON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - A positive start in Europe
nudged the main world share indexes and bond yields higher on
Thursday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve's second interest rate
cut of the year while Japan and others kept their limited
remaining powder dry.
The effects of the trade war has seen central banks around
the world swing back into support mode this year, but the Fed's
central message on Wednesday was that it wasn't expecting a
major capitulation of the economy. The Bank of Japan and Switzerland's central bank then both
kept their deeply negative interest rates on hold. Brexit-bound
Britain was expected to do the same later, while an outlier hike
in Norway also came with a hint it would be the last.
It was enough to push London's FTSE, Frankfurt's Dax and
Paris, Milan and Madrid up between 0.2% and 0.8% in early moves
after a broadly subdued Asian session.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares .MIAPJ0000PUS
had ended down 0.5% as a 1% fall in Hong Kong .HSI and 1.1%
drop in India .NSEI offset 0.4% gains on Japan's Nikkei
.N225 and from China's bluechip stocks. .CSI300
In line with the view of no economic Armageddon, the
benchmark government bond yields which act as a proxy for global
borrowing costs, also rose.
The more sensitive two-year U.S. yields US2YT=RR inched up
to 1.75% and Europe's key 10-year German Bund yield was up
around 2 basis points albeit still below highs hit last week and
at a mind-boggling -0.49%.
"This is not ‘QE4ever' as we've heard it called," analysts
at RBC said of the Fed's decision and signals. "We shouldn't go
too far in putting on QE-like trades”.
In the currency market, Bank of Japan's inaction saw the yen
JPY=EBS rise off a seven-week low versus an already lower
dollar .DXY and stage something of a jump against the
Australian dollar. AUDJPY=D3 /FRX
The BOJ had maintained its pledge to guide short-term
interest rates at minus 0.1% and the 10-year government bond
yield around 0%. It also signalled it could add stimulus as
early as next month but some traders had expected a move on
Thursday after the Fed's rate cut.
Yen bulls took the currency as far as 107.79 to the U.S.
dollar before it settled at 108.06 JPY=EBS for a gain of 0.4%
on the day. The move against the Aussie dollar had been as large
as 1%. AUDJPY=D3 .
"There were large yen-buying orders before the BOJ, and that
just carried through," said Tohru Sasaki, head of Japan markets
research at J.P. Morgan Securities in Tokyo.


BACK TO THE FUTURES
In contrast to Europe's upward shuffle, U.S. stock futures
ESc1 were pointing to modest 0.1%-0.2% falls for Wall Street
later.
The S&P 500 .SPX had reversed losses and ended broadly
flat on Wednesday after Fed chief Jerome Powell said he did not
see an imminent recession or think the Fed will adopt negative
rates.
The Fed had cut interest rates to 1.75%-2.00% in a 7-3 vote
but made a point of saying U.S. labour market remains strong.
So-called dot-plot forecasts from all 17 policymakers also
showed disagreement, with seven expecting a third rate cut this
year, five seeing the current rate cut as the last for 2019, and
five who appeared to have been against even Wednesday's move.
"This is a small positive for share prices as long as there
is no recession," said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy
and chief economist at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney.
"The only problem is a 25 basis-point cut was already
expected, and the comments and dot-plot forecasts were not as
dovish as the market hoped."
Elsewhere in the currency market, the Aussie fell 0.6% to
$0.6790 after data showed the nation's jobless rate rose
slightly to 5.3% in August, bolstering expectations for the
central bank to cut rates.
Sterling EURGBP=D3 traded at 88.53 pence per euro, near
its strongest level since May 30 ahead of a Bank of England
policy meeting later where uncertainty about how, when or maybe
even if the UK leaves the European Union remains the key issue.
Among commodities, U.S. crude futures CLc1 rose 0.31% to
$58.29 per barrel having largely stabilised after attacks in
Saudi Arabia over the weekend sent prices soaring on Monday.
Washington has blamed Iran for the attacks, a charge which
Tehran denies. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has said the
strike was "an act of war."

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