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GLOBAL MARKETS-Collapsing bond yields drive world stocks to new highs

Published 07/04/2019, 05:04 PM
Updated 07/04/2019, 05:10 PM
GLOBAL MARKETS-Collapsing bond yields drive world stocks to new highs
EUR/USD
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DE10YT=RR
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* Government bond yields near multi-year lows
* German 10-year Bund yields just off record lows
* U.S. Treasuries near 2-1/2 year low
* Slumping bonds push world stocks to new 18-month highs
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Tom Wilson
LONDON, July 4 (Reuters) - Government bonds held near
multi-year lows on Thursday on bets the U.S. Federal Reserve
would cut interest rates this month and that other major central
banks would embrace looser monetary policy, pushing world stocks
to new 18-month highs.
Benchmark debt yields held near record lows in the wake of
their recent rally, with Germany's 10-year Bund yields just off
a historic low of minus 0.39% DE10YT=RR hit on Wednesday.
U.S. 10-year Treasury notes had hit their lowest since
November 2016 on Wednesday, pushed down by bets that the
European Central Bank's next chief will maintain a dovish policy
stance to buoy the euro zone economy.
"For central banks, everyone is expecting dovish moves, not
only for U.S. but also for Europe and even Japan," said
Christophe Barraud, chief economist at Market Securities in
Paris. "Everybody is a optimistic for quick central bank moves."
The fall in U.S. Treasuries came after a report showed U.S.
companies added fewer jobs than expected in June, raising
concerns the labour market is softening even as the current U.S.
economic expansion marked a record run last month. With Wall Street closed for the Independence Day holiday,
the market's focus is now on Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls,
which economists expect to have risen by 160,000 in June
compared with 75,000 in May.
Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday
repeated his call for the United States to manipulate currencies
and pump money into their economies. In the euro zone, government borrowing costs have fallen to
record lows after EU leaders agreed late on Tuesday to name
Christine Lagarde as the ECB's new president.
Lagarde, the current International Monetary Fund head, is
widely expected to maintain the dovish stance of current ECB
President Mario Draghi.
On Thursday, German Bunds flirted with the ECB's minus
0.40%deposit rate, a closely watched psychological mark, though
traders did not think it would be broken.
"We don't expect it to be breached today," said Peter
McCallum, rates strategist at Mizuho. "There will not be enough
catalysts to get through that point and there is a lot of
supply."
For an interactive version of Bund yield set to fall below
ECB deposit rate, click here https://tmsnrt.rs/2YtKj7d.


The action in bond markets buoyed stocks. MSCI's all-country
world index .MIWD00000PUS eked out a 0.1% gain after hitting
its highest since February last year a day earlier.
Equity markets across Europe were flat, with the Euro STOXX
600 .STOXX unchanged amid thin volumes. The three major U.S.
stock indexes finished at record closing highs on Wednesday.
Italian 10-year bond yields also slumped to their lowest
since late 2016 after the European Commission dropped its threat
of disciplinary action over Italy's public finances, pushing the
country's main bourse .FTMIB to a new two-month peak.
In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares
outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.2%.

FLAT DOLLAR, EURO
Expectations for rate cuts by the Fed saw the dollar drift
away from recent highs, though currencies were by and large
quiet in early European trade.
The dollar index .DXY against a basket of six major
currencies was unchanged at 96.767.
The euro traded at $1.1284 EUR= , slightly higher than its
two-week low of $1.1268 touched on Wednesday.
FX strategists said that although the drop in U.S. Treasury
yields overnight was negative for the dollar, softness in other
currencies was lending some support.
"We are seeing some euro weakness and some dollar weakness,
and the two are cancelling each other out," said Thu Lan Nguyen,
FX strategist at Commerzbank.
"What is happening in U.S. and euro zone monetary policy
will also determine what happens in smaller countries," she
added.
In commodity markets, oil slumped on data showing a
smaller-than-expected decline in U.S. crude stockpiles and
worries about the global economy.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for
oil prices, were down 0.7% at $63.36 per barrel by 0844 GMT.
Reuters Live Markets blog on European and UK stock
markets, please click on: LIVE/

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Bund yield set to fall below ECB deposit rate png https://tmsnrt.rs/2YqE2cu
Bund yield set to fall below ECB deposit rate interactive https://tmsnrt.rs/2YtKj7d
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