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GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia shares suffer virus chills, central banks offer cold comfort

Published 03/30/2020, 12:42 PM
Updated 03/30/2020, 12:50 PM
© Reuters.
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* Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
* Nikkei leads Asia lower, S&P 500 futures recoup early
losses
* China, Singapore ease monetary policy
* U.S. extends social distancing guidelines to end of April
* Treasury bonds rally further, yield curves flatten
* Oil on the slide as supply engulfs demand

By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, March 30 (Reuters) - Asian shares slipped on Monday
and oil prices took another tumble as fears mounted that the
global shutdown for the coronavirus could last for months, doing
untold harm to economies despite central banks' best efforts.
"We continue to mark down 1H20 global GDP forecasts as our
assessment of both the global pandemic's reach and the damage
related to necessary containment policies has increased," said
JPMorgan economist Bruce Kasman.
They now predict global GDP could contract at a 10.5%
annualised rate in the first half of the year.
There was much uncertainty about whether funds would have to
buy or sell for month- and quarter-end to meet their benchmarks,
many of which would have been thrown out of whack by the wild
market swings seen over March.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 dropped 2.7% and Shanghai blue chips
.CSI300 1.8%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares
outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS lost 0.7%, though that was up from
early lows.
E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 ESc1 also recouped early
losses to edge up 0.3%, perhaps thanks to month-end demand.
EUROSTOXXX 50 futures STXEc1 firmed 0.5% and FTSE futures
FFIc1 went flat.
Central banks have mounted an all-out effort to bolster
activity with rate cuts and massive asset-buying campaigns,
which have at least eased liquidity strains in markets.
China on Monday became the latest to add stimulus with a cut
of 20 basis points in a key repo rate. Singapore also eased as the city-state's bellwether economy
braced for a deep recession, while New Zealand's central bank
said it would take corporate debt as collateral for loans.
Rodrigo Catril, a senior FX strategist at NAB, said the main
question for markets was whether all the stimulus would be
enough to help the global economy withstand the shock.
"To answer this question, one needs to know the magnitude of
the containment measures and for how long they will be
implemented," he added. "This is the big unknown and it suggests
markets are likely to remain volatile until this uncertainty is
resolved."
It was not encouraging, then, that British authorities were
warning lockdown measures could last months.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday extended guidelines
for social restrictions to April 30, despite earlier talking
about reopening the economy for Easter. Japan on Monday expanded its entry ban to include citizens
travelling from the United States, China, South Korea and most
of Europe. NOT DONE YET
Bond investors looked to be bracing for a long haul with
yields at the very short end of the Treasury curve turning
negative and those on 10-year notes US10YT=RR dropping a steep
26 basis points last week to last stand at 0.65%.
That drop has combined with efforts by the Federal Reserve
to pump more U.S. dollars into markets, and dragged the currency
off recent highs.
Indeed, the dollar =USD suffered its biggest weekly
decline in more than a decade last week. USD/
Against the yen, the dollar was pinned at 107.53 JPY= ,
well off the recent high at 111.71. The euro edged back to
$1.1088 EUR= , after rallying more than 4% last week.
"Ultimately, we expect the USD will soon reassert itself as
one of the strongest currencies," argued analysts at CBA, noting
the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency made it a
countercyclical hedge for investors.
"This means the dollar can rise because of the deteriorating
global economic outlook, irrespective of the high likelihood the
U.S. is also in recession."
The dollar's retreat had provided a fillip for gold, but
fresh selling emerged on Monday as investors were forced to
liquidate profitable positions to cover losses elsewhere. The
metal was last off 0.3% at $1,611.42 an ounce XAU= . GOL/
Oil prices were again under water as Saudi Arabia and Russia
showed no signs of backing down in their price war even as
global transport restrictions hammer demand. O/R
Brent crude LCOc1 futures lost $1.46 to $23.47 a barrel,
while U.S. crude CLc1 fell 97 cents to $20.54.

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Asia stock markets https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
Asia-Pacific valuations https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dr2BQA
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(Editing by Sam Holmes and Jacqueline Wong)

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