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EMERGING MARKETS-Philippines in tailspin as remittances plunge, lockdown extended

Published 08/03/2020, 04:13 PM
Updated 08/03/2020, 04:20 PM
© Reuters.

* Graphic: World FX rates http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh
* Graphic: Foreign flows into Asian stocks https://tmsnrt.rs/3f2vwbA
* Philippine remittances fall 19.3% in May
* Indonesia July inflation cools, prompts rate-cut bets
* Jardine Matheson, Cycle & Carriage slide on weak H1

By Rashmi Ashok
Aug 3 (Reuters) - Philippine stocks tumbled on Monday as
data showing a plunge in May remittances accelerated a sell-off
initially fuelled by concerns over a lockdown extension in and
around the capital.
The benchmark index .PSI fell as much as 4% to a two-month
low, as the government reimposed coronavirus lockdown measures
in Manila in response to fresh outbreaks and warnings from
doctors and nurses of stressed healthcare facilities.
At the same time, remittances, which accounted for 9.3% of
the country's gross domestic product in 2019, plunged 19.3% in
May, stoking worries that the current account deficit may
balloon and cause the peso to depreciate.
Remittances are a key source of foreign income for the
country, and its current account is heavily dependent on them
since it routinely posts trade deficit.
However, remittances across the world have fallen sharply
due to coronavirus-led salary cuts and job losses.
"Remittances are not expected to recover anytime soon with
the global economy likely in recession, adding more heat to an
already precarious situation for Philippine domestic growth
prospects," said Nicholas Mapa, ING's senior economist for the
Philippines.
ING had said in May it expected remittances to contract by
6.9% in 2020 due to the pandemic, sending the current account
deeper into deficit and forcing the peso PHP= to weaken to
52.19 by the end of the year.
The peso, however, held steady in the face of the news,
having risen along with other regional currencies in July on the
back of broad global weakness of the U.S. dollar.
The Philippines is set to report its third-quarter economic
growth data on Thursday and most analysts expect its GDP to
slide sharply against last year.
Indonesia's rupiah IDR= weakened after data showed its
inflation rate eased in July to move further from the central
bank's target range, prompting bets of more interest rate cuts.
Helped by hopes of more rate cuts, stocks .JKSE trimmed
initial losses to trade 2.8% lower. The index had fallen 4.3%
earlier as restrictions were extended in Jakarta in the midst of
an undeterred spike in coronavirus cases.
Stalling economic momentum will likely pressure the central
bank to trim rates further, ING said in a note, adding that
given the rupiah's weakness due to recent cuts, additional
easing was expected only if the currency returned to its
appreciation trend.
Singapore stocks .STI slid nearly 2%, dragged by
conglomerates Jardine Matheson JARD.SI and Jardine Cycle &
Carriage JCYC.SI after they posted sharp falls in half-year
profits. ** In the Philippines, top index losers were Robinsons Land
Corp RLC.PS down 7.15% and Ayala Land Inc ALI.PS 6.01% lower
** Top losers on FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kl Index .KLSE
included PPB Group Bhd PEPT.KL down 5.08% and Hong Leong
Financial Group Bhd HLCB.KL trading 4.32% weaker
** Indonesian 10-year benchmark yields climbed 0.3 basis
points to 6.828%​​ while 3-year benchmark yields rose 24.9 basis
points to 5.638%​​



Asia stock indexes and
currencies at 0706 GMT
COUNTRY FX RIC FX FX INDEX STOCK STOCKS
DAILY YTD % S YTD %
% DAILY
%
Japan JPY= -0.05 +2.53 .N225 2.24 -6.18
China CNY=CFXS -0.05 -0.21 .SSEC 1.66 10.33
India INR=IN -0.26 -4.83 .NSEI -1.02 -9.93
Indonesia IDR= -0.27 -4.74 .JKSE -2.80 -20.55
Malaysia MYR= +0.17 -3.33 .KLSE -1.21 -0.28
Philippines PHP= +0.16 +3.24 .PSI -3.58 -26.86
S.Korea KRW=KFTC -0.18 -3.10 .KS11 0.07 2.43
Singapore SGD= -0.14 -2.31 .STI -1.57 -22.73
Taiwan TWD=TP +0.34 +2.40 .TWII -1.20 4.30
Thailand THB=TH -0.16 -4.23 .SETI -0.71 -16.50

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(Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)

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