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EMERGING MARKETS-Mexican Peso, Asian currencies slump as U.S. vote tightens

Published 11/04/2020, 01:38 PM
Updated 11/04/2020, 01:40 PM
© Reuters.

* Mexican peso, Chinese yuan slump
* Asian shares closely track U.S. stock futures
* Philippine shares gain the most
* Graphic: World FX rates http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh
* Graphic: Foreign flows into Asian stocks https://tmsnrt.rs/3lKhL5I

By Shriya Ramakrishnan
Nov 4 (Reuters) - Mexico's peso and several Asian currencies
seen as most exposed to four more years of a Donald Trump White
House fell on Wednesday as early projections in the U.S.
presidential election hinted at a very tight race.
With early counting showing Trump ahead of Democratic rival
Joe Biden in the vital battleground state of Florida and several
swing states, the peso MXN= lost as much as 4% in late night
trade before recovering some ground. A half percent fall for China's yuan CNY=CFXS led losses
in Asia, with the Korean won KRW=KFTC and Singapore dollar
SGD= -- both seen as exposed to the trade tensions that have
marked Trump's first term -- down 0.3% and 0.4%.
The peso is highly sensitive to both political and economic
developments of the United States, its closest trading partner.
Implied volatility for peso-dollar derivatives MXN1MO= stood
at their highest since late April.
"I don't know if the market is again predicting a tough
stance against Mexico but I'll be surprised given a lot of the
issues seems to have been dealt with," said Mitul Kotecha,
Senior EM Strategist at TD Securities.
"Perhaps they are coming back to a relationship under a
Trump administration (that) may be less conducive from a trade
perspective."
Betting market odds on the U.S. presidential election have
flipped to favour Trump over Biden, according to data from two
aggregators. Analysts said that pointed to the potential for more of the
clashes with Beijing that have dominated recent years and
weighed on several of the Asian economies which tend to track
China and rely on it as a source of growth.
"If it's a Trump administration, it's going to be the same,
maybe accentuated, because he has nothing to fear. The cold war
with China will be worse," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment
strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York.
Stock markets had earlier appeared to be pricing in a
victory for Biden that would be expected to adopt a steadier
foreign and trade policy overall and a less combative stance on
China.
Most of the region's big share indexes were still higher in
midday trade, with Philippine shares .PSI up almost 2% after
data showed the country posted its first monthly rise in exports
since February.
Among other Asian currencies, tech- and trade-heavy Taiwan's
dollar TWD=TP stood out again with a more than 1% rise, while
the Indonesian rupiah IDR= at a near three-month high against
the U.S. dollar.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank earlier this week said in a note
that the rupiah would be the best hedge among Asian currencies
against a Trump victory scenario.

HIGHLIGHTS:
** Thailand's 10-year government bond yields are up 1 basis
points at 1.4%
**In the Philippines, top index gainers are Bloomberry
Resorts Corp BLOOM.PS up 4.34% at 7.7 peso, Metropolitan Bank
and Trust Co MBT.PS up 3.07% at 41.95 peso, Robinsons Land
Corp RLC.PS up ​ 2.89% at 15.64 peso
** Top gainers on the Singapore STI .STI include Singapore
Telecommunications Ltd STEL.SI up 2.44% at S$2.1, Singapore
Technologies Engineering Ltd STEG.SI up 1.14% at S$3.56, SATS
Ltd SATS.SI up ​ 0.97% at S$3.13

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Asia stock indexes and
currencies at 0446 GMT
COUNTRY FX RIC FX FX INDEX STOCK STOCKS
DAILY YTD % S YTD %
% DAILY
%
Japan JPY= -0.37 +3.59 .N225 2.08 0.52
China




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