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“QE” or “Quantitative Easing” has been the bull’s “siren song” of the last decade, but will “Not QE” be the same?Last week, amid a rash of bank...
The Fed will decide on interest rates tomorrow, with a high likelihood of a 0.25% increase A pause in the rate cycle would undermine the Fed's credibility, while a 0.5% hike could create fear among...
In this week’s newsletter, we’re going to provide you with an inflation update based on some of last week’s important data releases and also share some general thoughts on risk...
The complex details of SVB's failure are still unknown, and the current state of affairs is driven by emotions Bond market volatility has risen to levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis and...
March has historically been a graveyard for stock market predictions As the situation in global markets grows increasingly uncertain, could we be looking at a repeat? While the Fed...
The collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank rattled the markets, but the consequences are yet to be felt. In this report, we dive deeper into why we believe this is a systematic problem and why it creates...
Inflation trades are fading and gold (NYSE:GLD) is ascending to its rightful place in the disinflationary macro.The favored plan is working out well as we planned the Q4 (2022) – Q1 (2023) rally...
As portfolio managers, this is the question we ask ourselves daily. Since the lows of last October, the technical backdrop has improved markedly, as we discussed last week: “Our most critical...
Market pressures on U.S. banks are now spreading to Europe, where the already troubled Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) asked the Swiss government for help and got a liquidity boost.Investors are asking the...
The stock market forever surprises investors, but in the realm of risk, the future’s a bit less uncertain, at least sometimes. That’s hardly a silver bullet, but it helps manage...
Risk market volatility remains high in the wake of the Credit Suisse (SIX:CSGN) drama that saw European shares lose 3-4% across the board while Wall Street almost got out of it unscathed. The USD came...
While headlines of bank failures and bailouts consume the media, few are contemplating the economic and financial aftershocks that will follow.Hockey great Wayne Gretzky famously commented, “I...
Since projecting the Q4-Q1 broad market rally back in November, we have been managing a macro transition within this rally. Based on the leadership of the Semiconductor sector and Tech, it has been...
Risk market volatility rebounded to the upside overnight with bounces on European shares and Wall Street in the wake of the US regional bank crisis and the latest US CPI data. The USD came back...
If a couple of regional banks were so bad at managing their interest rate risk and deposit outflow risk to blow up in a few hours, how can we really be sure other banks won’t face similar...