Market Overview

Could monetary conditions be supportive of the “soft landing” scenario? While the “recession” versus “no recession” debate rages, there is a precedent for a...

Most of the major asset classes fell in May. The upside exceptions: U.S. stocks and cash. Otherwise, red ink prevailed last month, based on a set of proxy ETFs representing the world’s primary...

I am not the first person to point out that the stock market, at outlandish multiples, is not behaving consistently with commodities markets that are flashing imminent depression. If we insist on...

Global economic surprises suggest that GDP growth could be better than feared Investors can gain insight into the state of the domestic and international economy from retailers, automakers, and...

The warning signs continue to mount. Yet the US economy continues to defy expectations in some quarters that a recession is near. Granted, it’s arguably a precarious expansion that’s...

June is expected to be another volatile month on Wall Street amid a trio of significant market-moving events. Market's focus will be on the U.S. jobs report, CPI inflation data, and the Fed’s...

The agreement announced on Saturday by President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy that outlines a debt-ceiling deal may prove to be the easy part. The struggle to avert a US government default this...

Assuming no last-minute surprises, it seems like we might be getting a debt ceiling deal in the US, which means you should be prepared to get overwhelmed by financial commentators' takes about...

The contrast could hardly be more striking. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy emerged from yesterday’s latest round of negotiations with the White House with an upbeat spin but no deal. Soon after,...

Rarely in the history of US economic analysis have recession forecasts been plentiful and widely embraced. All the more extraordinary is the ongoing resilience of the economy that defies the gloomy...

The Fed seriously erred in 2021, focusing too much on supply and not enough on demand. The Fed can slow velocity but requires job losses and/or eroding consumer confidence. Forecasting the money...

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday spoke the words that investors have longed to hear: the rate-hiking cycle is ending. Except that maybe it isn’t.Speaking at a conference last...

The US is dangerously close to triggering its debt ceiling limit, yet markets seem very relaxed.The 2011 episode shows us how political incentive schemes can instead drag negotiations until the very...

U.S. shares led rallies in equities markets around the world in the trading week through Friday, May 19, based on a set of ETFs. The rest of the major asset classes lost ground.Vanguard Total Stock...