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Michael Ashton
CPI Swaps Improving? Not as Significant as You Think By Michael Ashton - Jun 08, 2023

Today we are going to geek out on inflation derivatives a little more. Since early 2022, just after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, 10y US CPI swaps have fallen from about 3.15% to around 2.50% (see...

Alfonso Peccatiello
Macro Investors Must Prepare for Upcoming Disinflation By Alfonso Peccatiello - Jun 07, 2023

The pace of the upcoming disinflationary impulse is likely to surprise many: most of our TMC models and leading indicators confirm our call for US core CPI to be in the 3% area by December, and to...

James Picerno
U.S. Economy Set to Continue Growing in Q2 By James Picerno - Jun 06, 2023

The odds remain low that the US will slip into a recession in the second quarter, based on current GDP nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. Although recession forecasts endure, the numbers...

Craig Thompson
Market Internals Improve, but Market Breadth a Challenge By Craig Thompson - Jun 06, 2023

The S&P 500The Federal Reserve has been increasing interest rates as a means to manage inflation by reducing overall demand in the economy. This strategy is intended to stabilize economic...

Lance Roberts
Fed’s Fight Against Inflation Is Far From Over By Lance Roberts - Jun 03, 2023

Could monetary conditions be supportive of the “soft landing” scenario? While the “recession” versus “no recession” debate rages, there is a precedent for a...

James Picerno
Most Major Asset Classes Decline in May Except U.S. Stocks By James Picerno - Jun 01, 2023

Most of the major asset classes fell in May. The upside exceptions: U.S. stocks and cash. Otherwise, red ink prevailed last month, based on a set of proxy ETFs representing the world’s primary...

Michael Ashton
Don't Bet Against Inflation Yet By Michael Ashton - Jun 01, 2023

I am not the first person to point out that the stock market, at outlandish multiples, is not behaving consistently with commodities markets that are flashing imminent depression. If we insist on...

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