Market Overview

Since October 2022, the stock market has traded consistently higher as earnings improved. With the first quarter earnings season behind us and the second quarter approaching, will earnings improve...

Market timing is investors' worst enemy And, buy and hold is investors' best friend in the long term Despite knowing this, most investors tend to lose a lot of money Despite the emergence of...

The US and European stock futures are trading a bit flat while traders focus on the next big catalyst that will drive the price action. The past few weeks have been about the US debt, and the drama...

Today we are going to geek out on inflation derivatives a little more. Since early 2022, just after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, 10y US CPI swaps have fallen from about 3.15% to around 2.50% (see...

CEO of a well-known fund recently said we're in a 'no-recession recession' This is after the markets rallied, the economy remained strong It seems like the 'finance gurus' were wrong, once again I was...

The headwind isn’t expected to soften for the world economy in 2023. For a second year in a row, global economic activity will ease, predicts the World Bank. There’s also a bit of good...

The pace of the upcoming disinflationary impulse is likely to surprise many: most of our TMC models and leading indicators confirm our call for US core CPI to be in the 3% area by December, and to...

The odds remain low that the US will slip into a recession in the second quarter, based on current GDP nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. Although recession forecasts endure, the numbers...

The S&P 500The Federal Reserve has been increasing interest rates as a means to manage inflation by reducing overall demand in the economy. This strategy is intended to stabilize economic...

Nvidia and Meta's stocks have skyrocketed this year Investors looking to gain from Meta and Nvidia's rallies have plenty of ways to do so And low-cost ETFs are one of the best options out...

Based on a set of ETFs, widespread gains lifted nearly all the major asset classes for trading in the week through Friday’s close (June 2). The downside outlier: commodities, which slipped...

Could monetary conditions be supportive of the “soft landing” scenario? While the “recession” versus “no recession” debate rages, there is a precedent for a...

Most of the major asset classes fell in May. The upside exceptions: U.S. stocks and cash. Otherwise, red ink prevailed last month, based on a set of proxy ETFs representing the world’s primary...

I am not the first person to point out that the stock market, at outlandish multiples, is not behaving consistently with commodities markets that are flashing imminent depression. If we insist on...