Market Overview

The gap narrowed in July between the expected return for the Global Market Index (GMI), and its trailing 10-year realized performance. Today’s revised long-run forecast for GMI, a global,...

Most of the major asset classes continued to rally in July, led by a surge in commodities based on a set of ETFs. US bonds, by contrast, remained the outlier, posting a third straight monthly...

Bank of Japan raises upper range of 10-year government bond yields to 1% Inflation remains high but not high enough for BOJ officials Meanwhile, Nikkei225 could still target new all-time highs Last...

Commodities have joined the party. After last week’s rally that lifted a broad measure of commodities, all the major asset classes are now posting gains for the year to date through...

This week will feature a ton of economic data that will likely reveal that the job market remains strong and the economy remains robust. Initial jobless claims have consistently decreased in the past...

The macroeconomic narrative shifts from recession to a soft landing.The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) data on Thursday. Although subject to...

The latest GDP data for the US economy presented a positive surprise, as it increased by 2.4% instead of the expected 1.8%. This suggests that the economy is improving and may not face a recession,...

The Fed raised interest rates by 0.25%, as expected Fed Chair Powell expressed uncertainty about achieving the 2% inflation target by 2025 Meanwhile, markets fluctuated and closed with uncertainty...

Tomorrow’s initial estimate of US economic activity by the government for the second quarter (scheduled for Thursday, July 27) is expected to report that a moderate expansion continues, based on...

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday to the highest since 2001. Despite hawkish warnings from Fed Chair Powell, the majority of traders are betting that this...

There’s an aspect of the higher interest rate structure we are now blessed/cursed with that hasn’t gotten as much airplay, but which is great news for dealer desks and also a good thing...

This is one of the most popular and yet misleading charts in macro.People like simple narratives: the Fed is ''pumping money'' into the ''system,'' and that's why equity markets go up. That’s...

This will be one of the busiest weeks of the year, with a flood of economic data, an FOMC meeting, an ECB meeting, and a BOJ meeting. On top of that, there will be earnings from 3 of the big seven.The...

Friday night saw Wall Street nominally put in a strong final session for the week with the Dow advancing for the 10th session in a row, but it was all relative as the broader S&P500 remains...