Market Overview

The Fed’s next rate move and its higher-for-longer policy mantra are predicated on high and sticky inflation. Inflation has fallen nicely from its peak but not enough to sway the Fed to...

Retail sales in the US have been resilient in the first half of 2023, despite concerns about a recession However, there are some warning signs that signal a slowdown in the coming months Earnings from...

Recession forecasts continue to swirl in some corners of the economics profession, but early econometric estimates for third-quarter GDP data suggest that the expansion will persist for now.US output...

Government bonds or stocks: If you were picking an asset class to outperform over the next 18-24 months, which would you choose?Such was an interesting point made by Greg Feirman last week. To...

The LERI shows Q2 2023 ended with the highest level of corporate uncertainty in the last year Retail in the spotlight this week: HD, TGT, TJX, WMT, ROST Upcoming potential surprise:...

Unusual turbulence has overtaken the Credit Ratings world in 2023 Earlier this year, the SVB crisis sparked doubts about Agencies' ability to predict a crisis Now, Moody's and Fitch's subsequent US...

Tax receipts are falling, which has historically preceded economic recessions. In a recent post, we discussed the issue of rising debt levels on economic growth and increasing debt levels. To...

The consumer price index data published this morning that showed a continuation of the disinflationary forces was well received by the markets initially as traders thought this leaves the door open...

Fitch Ratings sent shockwaves through the financial world last week when it unexpectedly downgraded the United States' credit rating from AAA to AA+.This represents only the second time in U.S....

Investors continue to price in high odds that the Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes are history after last month’s quarter-point increase. But the latest comments by several central bank...

If it sounds too good to be true, it's definitely not true! Anyone promising returns over 15% per year should be asked why they're not counted among the greatest investors like Warren Buffett,...

There are three basic ways to test an investment strategy. Each has its own unique set of pros and cons, but only one is practical.1. Out-Of-Sample Testing With Real MoneyThe best approach is to...

It’s ironic that I had planned this column a couple of days ago and started writing it yesterday because the very concerns I talk about below are behind the overnight news that Fitch is lowering...

Our recent article warns that a tremendous thirty-year tailwind for corporate earnings is dying down. Consistent corporate interest and tax rate declines significantly boosted stock prices and...