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James Picerno
US Q4 GDP Nowcast Still Points to Moderate Growth in 2023 By James Picerno - Nov 28, 2023

The recession that was widely predicted when the year began has only been postponed, some forecasters warn. The US is likely to contract at some point in the new year, runs the updated outlook. Maybe,...

Michael Lebowitz
Employment Is Sending Signals: Recession or Normalization? By Michael Lebowitz - Nov 15, 2023

In February 2023, we wrote this article. The article walks through Michael Kantrowitz’s HOPE model. HOPE, or Housing, New Orders (ISM), Corporate Profits, and Employment, provides a handy...

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