Gold Futures Press Into Sell Zones as Multi-Cycle Peaks Signal Overbought Risk

Gold futures continue to trade within a well-defined rising channel, maintaining strong bullish momentum from the 11/18–11/20 cycle low (Lo: 4018.1). The market has advanced into a confluence of high-probability resistance levels, reaching a session high of 4299.6, directly inside the VC PMI and Fibonacci Sell Zones. This area represents statistically overbought conditions.

VC PMI Structure

Daily Levels

• Sell 2 Daily: 4387
  
  
• Sell 1 Daily: 4287
  
  
• VC PMI Daily Mean: 4231
  
  
• Buy 1 Daily: 4199
  
  
• Buy 2 Daily: 4134
  
  

Weekly Levels

• Sell 2 Weekly: 4387
  
  
• Sell 1 Weekly: 4321
  
  
• VC PMI Weekly Mean: 4197
  
  
• Buy 1 Weekly: 4131
  
  
• Buy 2 Weekly: 4007
  
  

Price is currently oscillating between Sell 1 Daily / Sell 1 Weekly (4287–4321) and the pivot around 4231, indicating distribution at the upper boundary of the weekly structure.

Fibonacci Structure

The market is reacting cleanly to Fib levels drawn from the 4018 → 4299 advance:

• 61.8% zone: aligns with the VC PMI weekly mean at 4197
  
  
• 50% zone: aligns with Weekly Buy 1 at 4131
  
  
• 38.2% zone: aligns with the lower rising trendline
  
  

These alignments reinforce the likelihood of a mean-reversion event toward 4197–4131 if rising momentum stalls.

Cycle Analysis

30-Day Cycle

A new 30-day cycle began at the 4018 pivot, projecting into December 18–22. The rally from this pivot is accelerating, consistent with the early-to-mid phase of the 30-day bullish leg. Expect resistance clusters near 4300–4320, with potential topping formation around mid-December.

60-Day Cycle

The larger 60-day cycle aligns with the same time window (mid-to-late December), increasing the probability of a major inflection point. This zone could produce a secondary higher high or a corrective decline toward the Weekly Buy Zones.

90-Day Cycle

The 90-day cycle projects into late December to early January. The confluence of 30-60-90 cycles suggests a compression of time, which often precedes:

• A sharp continuation breakout above 4320→4387, or
  
  
• A mean-reversion correction targeting 4197→4131
  
  

At present, the chart suggests distribution and overbought conditions, favoring a reversion unless 4299–4321 is decisively broken.

Summary

Gold futures remain in a strong uptrend, pressing into the highest-probability VC PMI and Fibonacci Sell Zones. Momentum is extended, and with multiple cycle peaks converging in mid-to-late December, odds favor a corrective swing unless price closes above 4321 and then 4387 with conviction. Buy zones remain below at 4199–4131, with structural support anchored at 4007.

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Disclosure: This report is for educational purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Trading futures, options, and leveraged products involves substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All analysis is based solely on the chart and information provided. Always consult with your registered financial advisor before making trading decisions.