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REN, also known as Ren Redes Energeticas Nacionais SGPS SA, reported its third-quarter earnings for 2025, highlighting a stable financial performance with a slight dip in stock price following the announcement. The company reported a revenue of €384 million and a net income of €104 million, showing resilience in a challenging market environment. Despite a strong increase in net income, the company’s stock price fell by 0.91% to €3.275, reflecting mixed investor sentiment.
Key Takeaways
- REN’s Q3 2025 revenue reached €384 million, with a strong increase in net income to €104 million.
- The company’s stock price decreased by 0.91% following the earnings release.
- REN’s electricity consumption reached a 15-year high, with a 2.6% year-over-year increase.
- The Chilean market contribution grew significantly, nearing a 30% increase.
- The company is focusing on renewable energy, with approximately 70% of its electricity supply being renewable.
Company Performance
REN demonstrated stable performance in Q3 2025, with its revenue slightly decreasing compared to previous quarters. However, the net income showed a robust increase, indicating improved profitability. The company maintained its high-quality service levels and continued to expand its infrastructure and network capabilities, particularly in the Chilean market. The integration of renewable energy sources remains a priority, aligning with global sustainability trends.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue: €384 million
- Net Income: €104 million, a strong increase
- Net Debt: Continuing to decrease
- Full-year EBITDA: Expected to remain stable year-on-year
Market Reaction
Following the earnings announcement, REN’s stock price fell by 0.91% to €3.275. This movement reflects investor caution despite the company’s solid financial performance. The stock remains within its 52-week range, with a high of €3.44 and a low of €2.215. The market reaction may be influenced by the company’s stable outlook and the broader market trends in the energy sector.
Outlook & Guidance
REN projects a stable full-year EBITDA and an expected return on investment around 7%, with potential efficiency gains pushing it up to 7.9%. The company plans to invest approximately €2.5 billion in capital expenditures, focusing on accelerating electricity transmission investments. While cautious about hydrogen infrastructure, REN continues to explore renewable energy opportunities and network expansions.
Executive Commentary
- Rodrigo Costa, CEO, emphasized the company’s proactive planning: "We are already super busy preparing those plans."
- Gonçalo Morais Soares, CFO, highlighted financial flexibility: "We continue to manage the balance sheet carefully to enable flexibility for additional growth."
- João Conceição, COO, discussed energy strategies: "Our approach was only based on blending of natural gas and hydrogen."
Risks and Challenges
- Regulatory changes: The energy sector is subject to evolving regulations, which could impact operations.
- Market competition: Increasing competition in the renewable energy sector may pressure margins.
- Economic conditions: Macroeconomic pressures could affect demand and profitability.
- Infrastructure investments: Large capital expenditures carry risks related to project execution and returns.
- Energy prices: Fluctuations in energy prices could impact revenue and profitability.
Q&A
During the earnings call, analysts focused on REN’s regulatory environment and future growth prospects. The company expects constructive regulation and plans to leverage tax incentives. While no significant mergers and acquisitions are planned, potential legal recoveries from past tax disputes could positively impact future earnings.
Full transcript - Ren Redes Energeticas Nacionais SGPS SA (RENE) Q3 2025:
Madalena Garrido, Moderator/Investor Relations, REN: Hello, good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to REN’s third quarter 2025 results conference call. We appreciate your presence here today. Joining us this morning, we have the members of REN’s executive committee: Rodrigo Costa, our CEO, Gonçalo Morais Soares, our CFO, and João Conceição, our COO. Rodrigo will begin with his opening remarks, and this will be followed by a detailed overview on REN’s operation and financial performance for the third quarter. Following the presentation, we will open the floor to your questions. Thank you again for your attention and continued interest in REN.
Rodrigo Costa, CEO, REN: Thank you, Madalena. Good morning, all. As you were able to read, our results for the quarter did not bring surprises, and we are very, very busy in all fronts: on infrastructure construction, on new developments on the licensing phase, and more to come as new industrial and data center projects are surfacing in the news. We will see what happens, but for the moment, we are already super busy preparing those plans. We keep working close with the government to facilitate the planning of all these projects. The ENSO report was published and came out as expected and basically confirmed that we did our job, and we all need to learn from the experience. More reports will follow in the beginning of the next year, and I am sure they will help our industry. Our regulator shared their comments on the natural gas investment plans; they are public.
More recently, on electricity transmission and distribution regulation, with final terms to be published in December. Our Chilean projects are progressing well. We just announced a small acquisition of transmission assets that will increase our critical mass in the operation of Transemel. On the special tax fronts, sales for natural gas will be over soon, and the same applies for the electricity new projects. Both very good news. This is it. Now, Gonçalo will take us through the details.
Gonçalo Morais Soares, CFO, REN: Thank you, Rodrigo. Good morning to you all. As was said, I’d say that overall, the main thing is that the third quarter was basically in line with our expectations. The draft regulation that came seems to be a constructive step in terms of evolution. We think that the news that came from the draft budget on the tax front were also positive. Generically, the main financial numbers at almost EUR 384 million, they beat a small decrease. I’d say that this decrease will be more stable towards the full year kind of results. Net income of close to EUR 104 million, a strong increase. This is, as I said in the previous quarter, impacted by the way we are accounting for the tax incentives. Net debt coming down still.
I’d say stability, and we are clearly building flexibility to accommodate further growth in the coming years. CapEx is picking up, although there are some delays. I’ll go into that. It’s clearly picking up and accelerating a little bit. For now, I’ll pass it to João that will make you a quick update also on the operating side. João?
João Conceição, COO, REN: Thanks, Gonçalo. Good morning to you all. From the operational side, I would highlight the fact that the renewables share kept approximately the same value year on year. We are about 70% of our electricity consumption supplied from renewable sources. The difference, I would say, is the fact that after the blackouts, the consumption on natural gas increases, and it offsets the share of imports of electricity from Spain. In terms of electricity consumption, over the past nine months, we reached the highest value in the last 15 years, with an increase of 2.6% year on year. The natural gas consumption is a reflection of what I’ve just said as a consequence of a higher usage of combined cycle plants to generate electricity from natural gas side.
From the other points of the operational perspective, Gonçalo has already mentioned, the most important one is the proposal of the new regulation, which we will speak a little bit further on. Moving to slide number seven, you have the figures. Part of it I’ve just mentioned. I would complement only with the fact that we kept the higher levels of quality of service, clearly above the target set by the regulator, which are used to calculate the efficiency incentives that we have today. With this, Gonçalo, I move back to you.
Gonçalo Morais Soares, CFO, REN: Okay, thank you, João. Slide number eight is just the main numbers. I think I’ve already spoken about them. If you move to slide number nine, I’m sorry, and we see this small decrease on the quarter. There is, I’d say, still a conservative estimate that we are doing on our current incentives for the year. That kind of depresses a little bit the numbers. We think that full year this will probably be recuperated. There’s some on other revenues. There’s the disappearance of rent raising and its incentives. On OPEX, we’ll go into that, but mostly personnel and O&M. I’d say that full year, we should expect a more stable kind of EBITDA on a year-on-year kind of logic.
In terms of contributions, there’s a lot of stability from the electricity side, and you start to see an increase on the Chilean contribution, although, as always, on still being a small part of REN as a whole. In terms of slide 10, and looking at ROI, there’s no news. I’ll just make a couple of comments now about the new draft regulation, and I’ll leave it then to João also on the Q&A to complement this a little bit. What we saw was, first of all, a stable framework, which is good news. Apparently, no major changes. Second, we saw a 90 basis points increase on the base ROI, which seems to indicate that the blended rate, without any OPEX gains, to be around 7%, with the premiums and incentives that we have to be around 7%.
We also see a recognition from the regulator that we have been very efficient in OPEX as they reduce the OPEX efficiency factor. Overall, we feel that there are still certain things that we should improve. João’s team regulation is engaging with the regulator, but we do feel that this is a constructive proposal. Let’s wait for the 15th of December to have a final. On the Q&A, we’ll be able to clarify a little bit more, but this is more or less what we know as of now. Looking at 11, on investment, we see that there is an acceleration of investment versus last year, clearly. That being said, and to be completely honest, it’s a little bit less than we had expected. We are still trying to catch up.
Some of the CapEx that we had expected to do this year will probably be done next year. Probably on the two-year average, we will be within expectations. There was a small delay. Most of them were not on our side, were on the solar agreement side. That being said, I think you’ll still see an acceleration and an increase, as we’ve said all along. In terms of ROI returns, nothing new. You see electricity improving. As you know, you should add solar to these returns. You see electricity improvement, gas distribution more or less stable, and gas transportation coming down. Looking at OpEx, as I said, there’s an increase at this stage. This is the same trend that you saw in the first and second quarter.
It is mostly personnel costs, although on a full year, they would probably grow a little bit less than they are growing now. There are some external costs, namely O&M and some IT that is increasing. O&M is increasing because basically there are some price increases, but we have more kilometers offline, so we have more to operate. It is normal that this is increasing. This is reflected as time goes by in the regulatory excessive OPEX. Looking at Chile, things are progressing as expected this year. You saw and you know that we bought a couple of assets this year. This is accelerating a little bit the evolution of EBITDA for 2025. It is now increasing a little bit below 30%. Full year, it will probably be a little bit better, which will continue for next year as we consolidate the full year accounts of these assets.
Electric gas is basically stable, a small decrease, small changes in gas volumes, but it’s mostly, I’d say, a small decrease but stable overall. I’d say that Chile continues to perform well within that expectation of being a small part of REN as a whole. Below EBIT on slide 15, depreciation, no major news as usual. Financial results, what we are seeing is clearly a lower debt, which will be the trend for the full year also. That impacts financial costs. We also are seeing a small decrease on the average cost of debt. This is where probably full year it will most likely stay closer between 2.5% and 2.6% around that. We will probably not issue this year as we will be waiting for the final regulation to come out in December and the final state budget to come out in December also.
We will probably issue beginning of next year in the first quarter. That is when, I would say, the average cost of debt will again increase very slightly. I would say that it is very stable at these levels that we are seeing now. On the tax side, we continue to account for the capitalization incentive. That is a main driver for the increase of net income in the third quarter. Of course, on a full year basis, this is going to be different because we accounted it last year in the fourth quarter. We will probably have a smaller amount because last year it was around EUR 36 million. As you may remember, we have indicated around EUR 30 million for these years that will come. This will probably on a year-on-year be slightly different. Looking forward, we have good news.
As you saw on the draft state budget, they are eliminating the levy for the gas assets, that EUR 10 million more of net income that will probably come next year. They are continuing to reduce the corporate tax rate. They are eliminating the levy also on the new investments that are in electricity. It seems to be good news. This is, as we’ve been fighting it, a very unfair tax for a long time. It seems that finally it is correcting itself in the next year’s budget. Looking at net profit on slide 16, we see just what I said. Most of the impact comes from not only a decrease in net debt, but also an improvement in the income tax, which is because of that accounting issue. This will be smoother. Do not expect a 20% increase in net income for full year.
That is not what consensus is. It’s not what our expectations are. Looking at net debt, this is a reduction for this year. We continue same trends as we saw in the first half of the year. This is what we should expect for year-end, a decrease of net debt amount. As I said, we are now reaching the top of the interval that we have said in terms of excess net debt. We are clearly managing the balance sheet carefully to enable us to have flexibility for additional growth in the coming years, but being careful at the same time. Maturity is a little bit below five years because of delaying the issuance of the bonds. We are around five years, and this will again be about five years as we issue the bonds for next year. Okay?
In terms of shareholder price, it has been a good evolution. Prices are above these numbers that you see here already because they have picked up again in October on the back of those news that we have told you. It seems that shareholder return will be pretty decent for the full year of 2025. Looking at the FG, and I will go through this very quickly. It is more for your reference on slide 20. You see that the most interesting point is the point that emissions are increasing, or the most relevant point, I should say. This is basically due to, as João explained also, a larger use of gas generation facilities due to the blackout that occurred. That then caused emissions to grow in the grid. That is why we have more emissions ourselves. I would say that it was a very specific and isolated incident.
Okay? That’s the main event, I’d say, and the main thing that you see here in ESG. As you read the initiatives, we continue to go and to address this in a very detailed manner. As you see in slide 22, in terms of ratings, they are either stable or improving. This is an area that we continue to address and to give a lot of attention. As a closing remark, I’d say good results, good stable results in terms of net income with signs of investment acceleration. Okay? The second is a good new budget and constructive regulation since the outcomes this year. Third, just to tell you, we’ll have still, as usual, a board in the end of November.
This is the usual board that approves that intermediate dividend that we paid, the anticipated dividend that we should expect as normal to be paid in December, as we have done in the past year. Okay? With this I conclude, and I’ll open the floor to any questions that you may have for us. Thank you. Thank you. As a reminder to ask a question, please press star one-one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one-one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. We will now take the first question from the line of Enrico Bartoli from Mediabanca. Please go ahead. Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. The first one is on the new proposed regulation. You mentioned an expected return combined around 7%. The base one is 6.1%.
If I add also the incentives to the pre-2002 asset, we get to 6.4. If you can elaborate on how you get to that level, I guess, adding incentives. Also, in the document published by ERSE, there is a mention of the possible upside of this return to 7.9. If you can elaborate a bit on what could lead to that level and what reasonably could be achieved by REN in order to increase the blended return. In this context, if it is possible to have, let’s say, a flavor on, let’s say, the possible impact that the new regulation is confirmed could have on your CapEx plan in electricity transmission, if you think that there could be the proper condition in accelerating the investment that you have in the current business plan. A second question is on the level of debt that you indicated for the year-end.
You anticipated that this is going to decline. If you can also, in this case, elaborate a bit on the moving parts because actually CapEx is going up, then you have the acquisition of the additional assets in Chile. If you can also indicate how you expect the evolution in the fourth quarter of the tariff adjustments. The last one is on the outflow for investments in gas. It seems that, let’s say, in general, in Europe, there is some, let’s say, delay in the implementation of the production of hydrogen. Around 50% of your investments in gas in the current business plan are related to green gases. I was wondering if you see some, let’s say, risk or some, let’s say, delay in those investments considering the current market situation. Thank you. A lot of questions, Enrico, but let’s go. Regulations, you are asking.
Actually, most of those calculations were made by the regulator himself. Okay? We do not know a lot of the details, but the 7% that I was talking is clearly those two things. One is those pre-old 75 basis points incentive that has some of the assets, the premium. Second is an expected value for incentives. The regulator, in their calculations, had put 68 or 64 basis points of expectation. It is their own calculation. I do not think this is the full amount. That is more or less what you get. If you calculate that premium on average on the blended and you put around what they estimate, you get around this figure a little bit above or a little bit below. Okay? If we are able to beat their expectations, we will actually be higher than 7. If we miss a little, we will keep.
This is around the 7%. Okay? That is the calculation. The 789, we do not know. I think that their calculation has to do with some expectation of efficiency gains, but we do not know. I would say that this is around 7% and is what is easier to compare with other companies. Each company has their own OPEX efficiency gains, and that is a little bit different. Okay? Just to comment on the debt, I read the CapEx for less, and João can comment a little bit on those. I mean, we are expecting it to be around EUR 2.5 billion. That is, I would say, stable to a small decrease versus last year. CapEx is a little bit stronger at the end, but I would say that is more or less what our expectations are.
In relation to CapEx, just to tell you before I pass it to João, yes, I think that there is room to accelerate on the electricity side. We actually have a couple of delays this year. This is what we are expecting. João, can you comment on CapEx on both electricity and gas? Right. Starting from electricity, this is a trend that we’re already following. We have different fronts on our CapEx plan, not only to create new connections for injection, so for new solar and other sources of renewable that are foreseen in the Portuguese energy policy, but also on the demand side because, as you know, it’s public. We have a long queue of requests for new connections, mainly industrial consumption, data centers, green steel, ammonia, batteries.
Now, for the moment, a little bit spread all over the country, not only in the Sines area, but also closer to Lisbon and Setúbal and several other areas of the country. I would say that we are not changing the CapEx, electricity CapEx perspective. Obviously, like Gonçalo said, a constructive regulation is positive for that. In what concerns to gas, it’s true what you’re saying. Hydrogen acceleration is decreasing a little bit, but bear in mind that our plan was always very cautious on what hydrogen is concerned. Our investment in CapEx or in gas has, I would say, three pillars. The first one is maintenance and replacement CapEx that is always needed because several equipment reach the end of their life cycle and needs to be replaced and needs to be upgraded. Then you have a second bulk which has to do with biomethane.
We are receiving several requests from potential generators of biomethane to connect to the grid and to inject in the grid their biomethane. This is of some importance within the gas plants. Last but not least, hydrogen. Even hydrogen, our approach was only based in the beginning with the blended of natural gas and hydrogen. Much of what we are foreseeing for the very short term, and I want to say the very short term, the time horizon that we need final investment decisions, this has to do with the blending and not new infrastructure purely for transmission of 100% hydrogen. Okay. Thank you, Enrico. Thank you. Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Ignacio Domenech from JB Capital. Please go ahead. Hi, Jess. Good afternoon. Thank you for the presentation and for taking my questions.
I have two questions and a follow-up. The follow-up is on the CapEx side, given the acceleration we are seeing in this quarter and potentially in the coming quarters. What would be your best estimate on regulated CapEx for electricity? I do not know if for the period that Pedemonte has said or any period that you can give us, okay, to have higher visibility there. On my two questions, one is on returns. Okay? If in your view, it is fair to assume that given that in the past, the regulated returns on gas have been higher than electricity for many different reasons, if it is fair to assume that at least returns in the next regulatory period would be at the levels that we have seen in this graph for electricity. Okay? The second question is regarding the business plan that you presented in 2024.
It does seem that most of the objectives have been surpassed. An apology if you mentioned something in the call. I was having some logistic issues. If you can give us some color on what you are planning to update these objectives, how are you thinking on the framework for the next business plan? Thank you. Thank you, Ignacio. I mean, regarding the first one, we are not going to give you it a quarter away. The only thing I can tell you is that this year was, in particular, in the execution of solar agreements, a little bit slower than we expected. We are expecting to have a slightly higher growth this year than we will probably have. That being said, you’ll still see a growth in CapEx. I think that is going only to materialize next year, in 2026, a higher growth.
I’m not going to tell you the numbers of our budget, but this is the discussions that we are having internally, and they are showing that in our internal numbers. I can only signal you the direction and the sense. Regarding the update that you were referring, this is something that we’ve commented with some of the analysts that beginning of the year, probably at the same time with the full year end results of 2025, we may do, let’s say, an update of key figures for 2026 and 2027. As some of the numbers are a little bit outside of the range in the business plan, we may revise this. This is something that we are working internally. We are waiting for the final regulation and budget to come out. We will discuss this then internally, and we’ll come to the market.
This will probably not be before we disclose the full year results for 2025. Okay? Thank you. Thank you. As a reminder to ask a question, please press star one and one. Our next question comes from the line of Guillermo Domingos Neves from InvestGA. Please go ahead. Good morning. Thank you for the opportunity to ask the question. I would like to know what are your perspectives in the mid-long term regarding the availability of interconnections with Spain, given the possible spike in electricity demand with the Sines data center project. Do you plan or consider developing incremental network capacity to bring electricity from Spain? Thank you. No, thanks for your question. As you may be aware, when we are speaking about an interconnection, the two parts need to be in agreement. It is a long process that we have to interact with the Spanish side.
We are working at the moment to conclude the new interconnection in the north of the country, Miño. We are expected to be completed by the end of this year, beginning of early months of 2026. We have to continue to do our network planning arrangements with our Spanish counterpart to see the new developments for the future. Thank you. Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Flora Trindade from CaixaBank. Please go ahead. Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two quick ones. The first one is the question on regulation. In the previous regulatory framework, there was a review from the draft into the final return. Do you expect this time to see an improvement again? The second question is on your dividend policy.
Could you assume that it could make sense to propose a higher dividend considering the strong results you are getting this year and the expectation that you will have again recapitalization incentives next year? Thank you. Just on the regulation question, we are waiting now for the final decisions of the regulator. We do not comment on what is going to happen or not. It is now the decision. It is a process. They are getting comments from other parts, and they will do their decisions and publish by December. Regarding the dividends, same. We never make any comments on what we have today. We have a clear policy, and that is the one that we have. We will not comment on decisions that will have to be taken, proposal by the board, approved at the shareholders’ meetings. That is all we can say. Thank you.
We will now take the next question from the line of Fernando La Fuente from Alantra. Please go ahead. Hello. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking the question. I’m asking two, please. The first one is on taxes. What are your views ahead of all those taxes that you have paid already, special taxes, I mean, or these extraordinary taxes that you have paid already and that you are suing in courts? Secondly, going forward, what are your expectations of special taxes, both in the positive side on these positive taxes and also in the special one for electricity and gas? The second one, it’s on potential M&A. I believe by your comments that you have plenty of CapEx to be done in Portugal.
Hence, my question is if your, let’s say, predisposition or mood ahead of new M&As, probably not big in Chile, if you are considering doing something or if you are well with your current exposure to the country. Thank you so much. Thank you. Relative to tax space, as you know, we have been winning in court where the cases regarding gas assets. We won some in 2024, and we’ve also won two this year. We are continuing to see this. There is an amount around EUR 50 million-EUR 60 million paid taxes that we have not put into the accounts as recuperated from that time honor. If you account for 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025, which we paid this year, it’s around EUR 10 million a year. It does seem, but we don’t want to make a lot of comments.
It does seem that we have a good likelihood of winning, though, but we will see as this continues to progress in court. I would say this is an upside with a good probability for the coming years. Okay? We will see if this year there is already something in the accounts. There is clearly a good upside, as I said, with good probability. Looking forward, as we said before regarding the levy, what we are seeing now is that when the gas is gone, that is the good news. Two, on the electricity side, the new assets will not pay sales. That is also very good. What you will see is the levy comes down progressively as time goes by. Okay? We will see if, and we still consider that this will have to end someday, but we do not know exactly when it is.
Regarding the incentives, which is the other positive, as we said, we have a very strong expectation based on legal opinions that we’ve had for 2025, 2026, and 2027. 2025 is already going. It was in the budget. 2026, it’s still in the budget and is being proposed by the government. There seems to be a certain maintenance and a certain feel on the tax authorities that this is an incentive to be maintained. Even if it was not in the budget, as we told you, we felt that we would be entitled to it. It is better that it is in the budget also. Regarding M&A, we don’t have any idea. These small things that we did in Chile, we almost don’t even consider it M&A. It’s the acquisition of very small assets. It’s almost greenfield more than M&A because it’s very small.
We do not have any plans to do any M&A or any acquisition. Okay? Thank you, Fernando. Thank you so much. Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the conference back to Madalena Garrido for any closing remarks. Thank you, everyone on the line, and we remain available to take any additional questions that you may have. Thank you and have a good day. Thank you very much.
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