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UBS boosts year-end target on MSCI AC World to 800 from 750

Published 04/17/2024, 06:30 PM
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Analysts at UBS lifted their year-end target on MSCI AC World to 800 from 750, representing around a potential 6% upside.

Despite the target increase, the investment bank, in a comprehensive note, has pointed out tactical headwinds in the near-term for equities.

These include tactical indicators being "very extended" with the intra-index correlation very low, price momentum as a style remaining very extended, and soft survey data implying that actual data rolls over year to date.

Nevertheless, it is believed that this is just a consolidation phase, with analysts highlighting positive factors such as the generative AI narrative, wage data and the firm being less worried about revenue and margin risk.

"We raise the probability that Gen AI pushes up productivity from 2028 by 1pp (to 2.5%) to 60% (from 35%). Under the central scenario, equities end up being c9% cheap," wrote analysts.

They added: "There are near-term concerns over inflation but fundamentally the US wage data on the best lead indicators (the quit ratio and NFIB) suggests that even without Gen AI, unit labour costs will fall below 2% and hence we agree with the view that the near-term worries over inflation will dissipate."

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