Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) continues to show its dominance in the Generative AI sector, Morgan Stanley analysts said Thursday, citing data from a recent 2Q24 CIO survey.
Per survey results, Microsoft's leadership in GenAI is translating into significant incremental IT share gains.
"Microsoft's lead in terms of core spending intentions and positioning in GenAI is improving more meaningfully," the report states. Core spending growth expectations for Microsoft increased to 6.6%, marking the highest level since the second quarter of 2021. This surge is largely attributed to Microsoft's stronghold in both Generative AI functionality and its Azure Cloud business.
Analysts said CIOs are particularly bullish on Microsoft's GenAI offerings. The survey indicates that 94% of CIOs expect to adopt Microsoft Generative AI products over the next 12 months, a substantial increase from 63% in 4Q23 and 47% in 2Q23.
Microsoft 365 Copilot stands out as the favored solution, with 68% of CIOs planning to use it, followed by Azure OpenAI Services at 41%.
Microsoft's broader IT budget growth also shows a modest uptick. The 2Q24 survey suggests a 3.5% growth in IT budgets for 2024, a slight improvement from the previous quarter. Software spending intentions rose to 3.6% year-over-year.
"CIO growth expectations for Microsoft have increased +165 bps vs. our prior survey," notes Morgan Stanley.
Still, Azure continues to be a cornerstone of Microsoft's growth strategy. Of the CIOs currently using or planning to use Azure, 60% expect to increase their spend over the next 12 months, up from 52% in 2Q23. This uptick highlights the sustained momentum in Microsoft's cloud business.
Furthermore, O365 spending intentions remain stable, with 46% of CIOs indicating plans to increase spend, while the mix shift towards higher subscription tiers, such as E5, continues to gain traction.
The Wall Street firm also pointed out the initial adoption data for M365 Copilot, which suggests that user base penetration is expected to more than double over the next three years.
“Overall, this leaves CIO expectations well ahead of the implied adoption modeled in our bottom-up AI forecast, which leaves us feeling confident in our forecast and the potential for Microsoft to compound earnings growth over the coming years,” analysts wrote.
“Combined with a valuation still marking a discount to Mega Cap peers, we see further room for shares to move higher,” they added.